Cuba's Resilience: Sanctions, Russia Ties, and Geopolitics

11th February, 2024

In the context of long-term sanctions and the shifting global geopolitical landscape, how does Cuba's economic resilience enhance our understanding of the effectiveness and consequences of international policies, and what significance do Russia's relations with Cuba hold in terms of global power dynamics, potentially indicating broader geopolitical shifts?

First Layer

In examining Cuba's economic resilience under extensive sanctions and the significance of its relationship with Russia, a comprehensive analysis must consider a myriad of factors including, but not limited to, the intrinsic economic structures, historical ties, the role and reach of international policies, and the emergent multipolar world order indicative of shifting global power dynamics.

Cuba's Socio-Economic Landscape and Economic Resilience

Cuba's sustained economic resilience in the face of enduring sanctions, particularly from the United States, is rooted both in a diversification of its economic pillars and the ingenuity of its polity in leveraging international relationships. Despite claims by the Cuban government that U.S. sanctions have caused an economic impact of US$5.5 billion annually, it is paramount to calibrate this figure with meticulous economic scrutiny from impartial bodies, paying heed to both sides' narratives to grasp the sanctions' holistic impact.

Despite economic adversities, Cuba has exhibited a strategic inclination towards sectors including biomedicine, which has bolstered its global standing with exports of medical professionals and pharmaceuticals. The tourism sector plays a cruciform role in generating revenue, yet it is susceptible to external fluctuations, such as cuts in Venezuela's aid and pandemic-related turmoils.

Notwithstanding, Cuba's endeavors to fortify its economy can be discerned through its "Lineamientos" (guidelines), which crystallize attempts at economic modernization. These include measured liberalization of markets, fostering private entrepreneurship, and tapping into renewable energy potentials—a vital pivot away from volatile fossil fuel dependencies.

Russia-Cuba Relations and Geopolitical Influence

Charting the course of Cuba's relations with Russia unveils a historical companionship characterized by economic, cultural, and political consonance. Russia, cognizant of Cuba's strategic locale and emblematic resistance to Western hegemony, has consistently supported Cuba through debt exoneration, exemplified by the cancellation of the US$31 billion debt, and in contributing to cultural restorative initiatives evident in the restoration of Havana's Capitolio dome—a symbol of the endurance of their camaraderie.

However, the present-day geopolitical resonance of this relationship extends beyond camaraderie to deliberate Russian policy articulation aimed at establishing a foothold in the Caribbean—a region erstwhile dominated by Western interlocutors. This dynamic bilateral engagement hints at a refashioning of global alignments, particularly as Russia endeavors to fortify its diplomatic backyard and counteract Western sanctions imposed against itself.

BRICS and the Ramifications for Global Realignment

The BRICS bloc, encompassing Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, represents a collective intent to facilitate a more equitable global economic governance, offsetting traditional Western influence. The expansionary goals of BRICS and its endorsement of new member states possessing an anti-hegemonic posture, like the overtures to include Cuba, could catalyze a restructuring of global economic systems and influence a shift towards de-dollarization.

Analyzing BRICS' potential influence requires acuity in understanding the coalition's stance on sanctions and global governance reforms. Emerging trends suggest an ideological symphony with Cuba’s ethos, potentially broadening Cuba's access to alternative collaborative frameworks, notably the New Development Bank, thereby fortifying its economic resilience.

Macro-Level Impacts and Consideration of International Policy Effectiveness

At the macro-level, the implications of various nations' policies on sanctioned states need to be critically assessed. Notably, an over-reliance on sanctions may provoke adverse humanitarian impacts, consequently raising questions about the true efficacy and ethicality of such policies. Debates rage on the use of economic sanctions as a diplomatic réussite or as muscle flexing sans substantial resolutions to geopolitical disputes.

Moreover, the current trends in international policy reveal a fracturing accord on sanctions usage, as seen in the growing reluctance of many Global South countries, including BRICS members, to support unilateral embargos and the call for a more multipolar global economy that respects sovereignty and adheres to multilateralism.

Future Projections

As we project into the future, several scenarios unfold that merit attention. Cuba might intensify its economic self-sufficiency, fortifying ties with like-minded nations, and potentially integrate into new economic blocs challenging the status quo. Alternatively, a softening of U.S. foreign policy could open avenues for economic engagement, reshaping Cuba's economic landscape.

Key indicators signaling such shifts embody legislative reforms within the U.S., evolving BRICS dynamics, and the global community's stance on sanctioning practices. Any progression towards institutionalizing a "de-dollarized" world economy, spurred by BRICS, constitutes a critical trigger, presaging a recalibration of global economic alignments.

Actionable Insights and Recommendations

To provide actionable insights, it is cautioned that stakeholders in Cuba's socioeconomic sphere and external actors such as the United States and the European Union must recognize the multifaceted nature of sanctions and reassess the long-term viability of this economic tool concerning their strategic objectives. A deepened understanding of Cuba's internal economic strategies will allow for more nuanced international engagements, potentially involving softening or restructuring sanctions to foster constructive dialogues.

For Russia, strategizing forwards would entail weighing its geopolitical influence in the Caribbean against its broader strategies, avoiding overextension. Russia could explore reinforcing economic ties with Cuba through joint ventures, particularly in biotechnology, while considering the implications of such moves on its relations with other global powers.

On a broader scale, international actors should consider the evolving diplomatic tableau where the BRICS bloc and allied nations are articulating a counter-hegemony narrative. Engaging with these emerging realities, through comprehensive diplomatic strategies and preparations for a possible global economic shift, becomes imperative.

Concluding Remarks

This analysis elucidates that the confluence of Cuba's economic resilience and its synergic alignment with Russia serves as a prism through which we may discern the tectonic shifts happening within the substrata of global power dynamics. Understanding these links and their potential cascading impacts requires keen insight into the multiplicity of factors at play, framing a narrative that is as intricate as it is expansive, and thus informing the decision-making matrix for various geopolitical stakeholders.

Second Layer

Cuba's Economic Resilience Under Sanctions and Russia's Global Influence

Cuba's economic resilience under decades of U.S. sanctions is not solely a testament to its policy shifts such as the Lineamientos but also an indicator of its geostrategic prowess in leveraging global alliances to cushion economic fallout. Despite claims by the Cuban government regarding the substantial financial impact of U.S. sanctions—US$5.5 billion annually—there exists a palpable need for unbiased economic audits to discern the intricate factors contributing to Cuba's economic state. Disentangling these factors must inevitably confront varied attribution claims, from sanctions and global market turns to domestic economic management, underpinning the necessity for a granular analysis that encompasses not only the scale of liberalization and diversification but also the structural intricacies of Cuba's economic strategies.

Scrutiny of Russo-Cuban economic relationships reveals a depth that is pivotal to understanding the evolving multipolar international power dynamics. The cancellation of US$31 billion of Cuba's debt by Russia in 2014, the collaborative ventures aimed at the restoration of cultural relics such as the Capitolio, and Russia’s inclusion of Cuba in its broader Caribbean strategic orientation are grounded in historical camaraderie. However, these engagements are more than mere reflections of a historical continuum; they represent Russia's investments in the geopolitical chessboard of the Caribbean, key in the counterbalances to the global sway of Western sanctions. It is imperative to explore the dimensions of such investments and their implications, including project-level financial flow analyses and tactical alignments with Cuba's national priorities, to transcend superficial assessments and attune policy directives accordingly.

The potential inclusion of Cuba within the BRICS framework signals a movement towards varying degrees of hegemony diffusion. Access to the New Development Bank would instantiate a repositioning of Cuba within international economic relations. Nevertheless, the entwined threads of anti-hegemonic narratives and economic affiliations inherent to BRICS necessitate a bifurcation for clear-sighted discourse. An analytical focus on individual state's economic agendum, including precise commercial statistics and infrastructure throughput—as contrasted with collective BRICS ideologies—would refine global economic power dynamics' interpretation.

Examining the effectiveness of sanctions as an international policy instrument suggests an urgent need for a multidimensional assessment framework. The quantitative outcomes of widespread sanction regimes on sanctioned states must align with the qualitative metrics of their impingement, particularly from a humanitarian viewpoint. A differentiated analysis that transcends juxtapositions on sanctions’ effectiveness should consider scenario-based outcomes of sanctions, explicitly addressing their potentiality to instigate reforms, their operationalization within broader geopolitical agendas, and the socio-economic penalties they impart.

An essential expansion of the analysis would include a milieu of scenarios in which Cuba's alliance with Russia, while seemingly fortifying its resistant stance towards imperial impositions, might precipitate dependencies that could potentially decouple Cuba’s economic decisions from its sovereign interests. Rutted within this reality is a trajectory that may harbor latent risks for Cuba's latitude in international engagement, economic reform, and internal policy autonomy. However, an unbiased assessment must also ponder possible strategic synergies that could emanate from such alliances, including technological knowledge transfer, sectoral development (e.g., energy diversification, biomedicine), and bolstered bargaining positions within international forums.

Evaluating each historical debt relief or cultural restoration project across significant temporal slices is vital to explicate not only their immediate economic and social payoffs for Cuba but also to deduce Moscow’s long-term imperatives—and perhaps, contingent offerings for Havana. Internal infrastructural capabilities, workforce development, and industrial modernization are interlocked with the economic prognosis for Cuba, subject to the dependable deliverables and sustained mutualism of its partnerships.

Engaging with the conceivability of a global economy where a multiplicity of currencies, including those floated by aspirant blocs such as BRICS, coexist or challenge the predominant status of longstanding currencies such as the U.S. dollar is as visionary as it is necessary. In this vein, Cuba's potential role as a vanguard in alternative financial and trade arrangements—perhaps even involving mechanisms resistant to conventional sanctions—rends into the future tapestry of global commerce. That said, proposing such counterintuitive avenues as digital currency adoption for trade bypass necessitates a critical examination against Cuba's technological infrastructure and regulatory provisions.

In conclusion, Cuba's economic and cultural resilience under extant sanctions and its dynamic rapport with Russia is indelibly a narrative with global significance. Our understanding of the multipolarity emergent in global economic systems and the variegated usefulness of sanctions relies on the meticulous interrogation of data, policy, and strategic foundations. This lays a strategic projection that not only confronts the here-and-now of sanctioned states’ vitality but also heeds the drumbeat of unfolding global paradigm shifts, which Cuba appears both shaped by and shapeable within.

NA Preparation

Material Facts for Analysis on Cultural and Economic Resilience in Sanctioned States

Cuba's Socio-Economic Landscape

• Cuba experiences substantial anti-government protests, the most significant in decades, directed against the backdrop of a pandemic and prevailing economic challenges that include insufficient resources like food, medicine, and reliable access to electricity.

• The Cuban government officially cites U.S. sanctions as causing an economic impact of US$5.5 billion in the previous year. The accuracy of this figure is contested, with detractors attributing economic distress to government mismanagement and the failure to modernize the state-centric economy.

• Measures taken in response to protests demonstrate the government's stance on dissent and crisis navigation, including acknowledgment of sanctions and social media's role in organizing demonstrations, arrests of protesters, imposition of internet blackouts, and the introduction of temporary import relaxations.

Russia-Cuba Relations in Economic Context

• The support network for Cuba includes critical interventions by Russia, with actions such as deferring debt payments until 2027, exporting essential commodities like wheat, donating medical supplies amidst the COVID-19 crisis, and engaging economically despite the sanctions regime.

• Russia expunging approximately 90% of Cuban debt, historically termed "cucumber debt," parallels Russia's continued engagement in restoration projects, indicative of strategic cultural and economic ties with Cuba that extend beyond financial transactions.

Global Positioning and BRICS Realignment

• Faced with U.S. sanctions, Cuba's potential engagement with BRICS derives significance from the bloc's counter-hegemonic positioning and efforts aimed at economic systemic shifts, such as reduced dependency on the U.S. dollar for global transactions.

• Over 40 states, including significant global actors, have expressed interest in joining BRICS, intimating a possible alteration of global economic and political structures, which could provide Cuba alternative collaborative frameworks and access to resources like the New Development Bank.

Digital Mediums and Civil Dynamics

• Cuba's encounter with unrestricted social media in 2018 and subsequent state interventions to control the digital domain during protests reflects an evolving landscape of information dissemination and state engagement with public forums, which plays a role in state resilience.

• The emergence of digital technologies facilitates novel methods for organization and resistance within sanctioned states, and subsequently, the responsiveness of the state apparatus to such dynamics becomes material in evaluating state control and resilience.

Historical and Cultural Statecraft

• Insights into the educational, cultural, and religious facets of a community, as accentuated by analysts regarding Russian society, elucidate foundational aspects that influence state-society synergy, extending relevance to Cuban social integrity and its response strategies amid external pressures.

• Potential modification in cultural and religious practices due to factors such as technological manipulation (AI) and state enforcement measures become pertinent in assessing long-term societal resilience.

The aforementioned Material Facts, enhanced for technical rigor and alignment with the geopolitical context, form the bases for a thorough assessment of Cuba's economic resilience, the effects and efficacy of international sanctions, and the potential implications of Cuba's alignment with Russia within the larger framework of global power realignments.

Force Catalysts

Leadership, Historical Shaping, and Policy Interconnectivity

The intricate historical fabrics of leadership and policy development in sanctioned states such as Cuba under President Miguel Díaz-Canel and Russia under President Vladimir Putin must be dissected with respect to the traditional and emergent frameworks within which leaders operate. Cuban leadership bears the imprints of its revolutionary lineage, informed by both enduring ideological narratives and the experiential learning derived from sustained external pressures. Díaz-Canel’s leadership reflects both the historical tenacity of the Cuban state and the adaptability compelled by contemporary exigencies, asserting a disciplined yet malleable approach toward both domestic discontent and international diplomacy, as observed in the nuanced government response to social unrest.

Similarly, the Russian leadership paradigm, as embodied by Putin, evolves from a confluence of historical power consciousness and modern global realpolitik, with an increasing focus on multipolar geopolitics and supporting alliance-building with states under sanction. Russian engagements, from culturally resonant gestures like the Capitolio’s restoration to strategic economic overtures, project an amalgamated image of soft and hard power. Engaging in a granular analysis of leadership attributes is pivotal to unpacking the ways influential personalities have been shaped by collective histories, how they coalesce with societal expectations, and adapt to the pressures imposed by international adversaries.

Sectoral Resilience and External Support Variabilities

Cuba’s resilience is an amalgamation of responses to a diversified array of pressures that are calibrated to thrive under the conditions of prolonged sanctions. The intrinsic vigor is derived from strategic diversification into sectors like tourism and the harnessing of remittance streams to diminish reliance on traditional economic bulwarks. This ongoing shift evidences a considerable capacity to innovate in adversity, articulating a domestic narrative of resistance and adaptation. The role of international partners, particularly Russia, extends beyond diplomatic solidarity, materializing as economic support, prospective military-strategic restoration endeavors, and medical aid during crises, which play a crucial role in sustaining the Cuban economic model and populace well-being.

Understanding resilience involves critical evaluation of the tactical and structural shifts a state displays as it navigates the constraining forces imposed by international sanctions regimes—revealing a spectrum of responses that oscillate with changes in external support levels, as well as internal socioeconomic landscapes.

Adaptive Policy-Making and Initiative

Cuba’s pursuit of strategic initiative in its diplomatic maneuverings reflects a forward-looking approach vital for sanctioned states yearning liberality from hegemonic dominion. This is evident in Havana's multi-vector engagement with blocs like BRICS and its economic policy restructuring aimed at counterweighing the punitive effects of sanctions and fostering greater economic sovereignty. The policy autonomy and independent decision-making apparent in Cuba’s nuanced alignment with political-economic collectives evidence an assertive and pragmatic blueprint for national advancement, forming a bulwark against unilateral constraints.

Scrutiny of Russia's initiatives reveals a dual strategy—leveraging economic relationships to underpin sanctioned allies and exercising geopolitical influence through proposed military engagement revivals in strategic locations, signifying both a commitment to historical partnerships and an acumen for realigning its stance in a fluid geopolitical climate. These initiatives represent a multifaceted construct, wherein proactive, often anticipatory, decision-making correlates directly with the state's capacity to seize opportunities and consolidate influence against a backdrop of shifting international paradigms.

Entrepreneurship in Economic Adaptation and Strategic Diversification

Investigating entrepreneurial capabilities within sanctioned states calls for an examination of how such states circumnavigate the economic barriers imposed by international decree. Through an engagement with varied diplomatic and economic players, Cuba has demonstrated an ability to acquire developmental inputs from diverse origins, expanding beyond a traditional reliance on specific allies, thus manifesting an entrepreneurial dexterity to leverage economic adversity into opportunity.

Russia's deployment of entrepreneurial tactics, implied through initiatives like expanding military partnerships in Latin America, underscores the pursuit of creating strategic advantages while cultivating new connections and fortifying existing ones. These developments instantiate entrepreneurship in the diplomatic realm, crafting a narrative of long-term vision and diversification that speaks to the dynamism of Russian foreign policy aspirations.

A synthesis of these entrepreneurial responses across multiple sanctioned states, and within various international contexts, would enrich our understanding of the ways in which states employ ingenuity to transcend the limitations of sanction regimes. It would narrate a global story beyond the anecdotal, crystallizing a broader pattern of the evolution of state conduct in the face of economic duress. It is in these shared and diverse experiences that we grasp a more profound comprehension of the elasticity and ingenuity in the statecraft of sanctioned nations, vital to deciphering the attendant shifts in global power correlations and foreseeing the potential realignments on the horizon.

Constraints and Frictions

Constraints and Frictions in the Context of Cuba's Relationship with Russia and Geopolitical Shifts

Epistemic Constraints

Cuba's capacity to formulate strategies under sanctions is limited by the paucity of verified data on the exact economic impact of these measures. The epistemic constraint here arises from discrepancies between the Cuban government's claim that sanctions imposed by the US have cost the island US$5.5 billion last year, and critics' assertions that the economic hardships are primarily due to a poorly managed state-run economy. Precision can be enhanced by introducing an audit performed by an international and impartial body, adapted to circumvent intellectual property issues while scrutinizing both the Cuban government's financial disclosures and US sanctions' frameworks, considering the transparency requirements established by international standards such as The International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS).

Moreover, sanctions can lead to strategic blind spots through restricted access to global markets, hindering the diffusion of knowledge and technology. For example, sanctions could curtail Cuba's ability to engage with international academia and limit access to technological advances, hampering innovation and adaptability.

Resource Constraints

Cuba's economic resilience in the face of long-term sanctions is underpinned by its Resource Constraints. Sanctions have historically curtailed the availability of both financial and material resources that would otherwise support various sectors of the economy. For instance, investments in infrastructure and industrial capabilities are impeded, directly affecting output and efficiency. The embargo has narrowed Cuba's financial stream, limiting foreign direct investment and access to international credit markets. This, in turn, adds pressure on the country's liquidity and complicates international transactions, as highlighted by the Russian bank card transactions' viability in Cuba.

Temporal Constraints

The prolonged nature of sanctions manifests unique Temporal Constraints. Long-term isolation has forced Cuba to adopt a chronically defensive economic posture, with planning horizons shaped by the immediacy of sanctions-related challenges rather than long-term developmental strategies. Cuba's economic maneuvers, such as currency reforms, have to be responsive to fluctuating conditions, which are often unpredictable due to the external pressure of sanctions. However, temporal dynamics also cover historical patterns of resilience, as during the "Special Period" in the 1990s, when Cuba expanded urban agriculture and adopted other autarkic measures to mitigate the sudden loss of Soviet subsidies.

Temporal dynamics also come into play when considering the future, as geopolitical shifts could alter the sanction landscape. A Biden administration policy change or a shift in US Congress could impact sanctions, impacting Cuba's temporal constraints. The fluctuating nature of the Russia-Cuba relationship, potentially amplified by increasing global tensions, also influences long-term strategic considerations.

Spatial Constraints

Cuba's geopolitical position in the Caribbean and spatial constraints pose both challenges and opportunities. Its proximity to the US geographically juxtaposes it within a sphere of high strategic interest, further complicating the nature and enforcement of sanctions. Infrastructure challenges tied to resource constraints reveal spatial limitations that are intensified by the sanctions regime, such as the impediments in expanding the transportation network, which reduces economic activity’s spatial reach within and beyond Cuba's borders.

Cognitive Constraints

Cognitive Constraints relate not only to individual and collective decision-making within Cuba but also to the international perception and understanding of Cuba's economic resilience and adaptability under sanctions. The sanctity of Cuba's data regarding the impact of sanctions could be compromised by biases, including patriotism or anti-US sentiment, potentially skewing internal assessments and external analyses. Similarly, critics of the Cuban government may possess an inherent bias against acknowledging any positive effects of the government's policy shifts on economic resilience, favoring arguments that align with their ideological stances.

Regulatory and Legal Constraints

The myriad of legislation comprising the US sanctions regime creates an intricate web of Regulatory and Legal Constraints, with key elements such as the Helms-Burton Act imposing restrictions on international entities dealing with confiscated properties in Cuba. Such laws not only stifle direct economic activity but also create a chilling effect, dissuading potential international partners from engaging with Cuba due to the fear of repercussion from US jurisdiction. A comprehensive legal analysis must be continually updated to understand these constraints as they evolve, particularly following the global trend towards imposing sanctions as a form of economic warfare, as witnessed in instances such as US sanctions against Russia, or the consideration of global rules for economic warfare, drawing upon historical lessons to avoid unintended consequences.

Social and Cultural Constraints

Cultural adaptability and resilience are cornerstones of Cuba's response to long-standing sanctions. Nevertheless, Social and Cultural Constraints emerge from internal resistance to reform and from the external pressures which seek to influence Cuba's cultural norms and societal behaviors. Current socio-political movements within Cuba, driven by a younger population with differing values and greater exposure to social media and global perspectives, might disrupt traditional socio-cultural constraints and push for more profound changes than those currently being conceded by the government.

The impact of sanctions on societal norms should also be assessed, accounting for changes in public opinion and sentiment that could diverge from state narratives on resilience. Moreover, Victor's point on the intertwining of cultural, religious, and educational practices in shaping collective societal resilience is pertinent. An inquiry into retaining these cultural touchstones in the face of modern threats such as misinformation campaigns powered by artificial intelligence offers a multidimensional view of the cultural fabric’s resilience under geopolitical strains.

Environmental Friction

Cuba's economy is primarily agriculture-based, with sugar, tobacco, and citrus fruits constituting significant export commodities. Environmental Frictions such as hurricane seasons and climate change-induced weather patterns, specifically affect agricultural productivity, which, in turn, disrupts trade and aggravates the impacts of sanctions. The toll of natural disasters on infrastructure exacerbates these constraints, depleting resources that could have been allocated toward development under more benign conditions.

Technical Friction

Technical Frictions in Cuba manifest as logistical challenges resulting from antiquated technology and machinery. Sanctions have impacted the modernization of both industry and agriculture, resulting in inefficiencies and suboptimal outputs. Breakdowns in essential utilities, such as power generation facilities, directly affect public and economic sectors.

Human Friction

Human Frictions in Cuba are significant, considering the waves of protest and social unrest driven by the populace's desire for change. These draft more significant scrutiny upon the nation's internal policies and external perception—elements pivotal in a sanctioned state's quest for economic resilience. The responses to these protests and subsequent restrictions on social media reveal the complexities of managing human friction in a digital age where information dissemination is swift.

Organizational Friction

Organizational Friction arises from the governmental response to protests and the associated international commentary, such as the UN concerns about the impacts of US sanctions on ICC's work, emphasizing the delicacy of managing responses to domestic discontent and international criticism. The dynamic of navigating internal bureaucracy and its interplay with executing strategic measures under duress provides insight into the structural and procedural constraints inhibiting optimal policy outcomes.

Informational Friction

Informational Frictions in Cuba are typified by the control over and the dissemination of information, such as the government’s shutdown of mobile data during protests to curb the use of social media for organizing. This control, while having immediate effects on dissuading mass mobilization, also isolates Cuba from global discourse and hinders the free flow of information internally, essential for both economic activity and cultural resilience.

Political Friction

Political Frictions are inherently tied to Cuba's international policies and alliances, as exemplified by the narrative surrounding US sanctions. Russia's approach toward building relations, as evidenced by the clearing of a substantial portion of Cuba’s debt, signals political maneuvers that deepen bonds despite sanction pressures, bolstering Cuba’s geopolitical relevance and the possibility of emboldening its stand against US-led sanctions.

Economic Friction

Economic Frictions arise not just from sanctions but also from market forces that can equally constrain or liberate an economy's potential. Cuba must navigate the volatile landscape where market dynamics in sanctioned economies become haphazard, influenced by factors such as the potential impact of the Russia-China relationship on global oil prices, Russian support in the form of postponed debt repayments or the shifting BRICS dynamics, and the quest for "de-dollarization."

The chaotic nature of fitting into a multipolar world, where attempts at rejection of hegemonism and promotion of economic globalization offer alternative routes to economic resilience, exemplifies the economic friction present in such a sanctions-driven landscape. China's advocacy for the lifting of the US embargo and the usage of alternative currencies highlight shifts that can either alleviate or complicate the economic burden on Cuba.

Importance to Net Assessment

By meticulously untangling these Constraints and Frictions, we can derive a holistic view of Cuba's strategic performance under a prolonged sanction regime, capturing inherent capacities and vulnerabilities. A granular analysis of these factors enables a nuanced understanding of how internal and external forces craft the realities of Cuban economic and cultural resilience. These insights enrich our perception of the layered impact of international policies and the evolving geopolitical shifts that could bear influence on sanctioned states, providing a template for forecasting Cuba's future in the fluctuating equilibrium of global power dynamics.

In applying a probabilistic and scenario-based approach, the analysis needs to encompass not just a static evaluation but an evolving one, offering probabilities of varying sanctions enforcement and shifts in international support. For instance, scenarios could range from the full normalization of US-Cuba relations to a strategic pivot where Russia or China substantially increase support to offset the impact of sanctions. Each scenario could examine a different combination of constraints and frictions, analyzing their effects in light of Cuba's persistent efforts toward economic self-reliance and cultural fortitude.

This methodology requires consistent iteration and real-time feedback mechanisms, suggesting engagement with emerging data and insights that refine the assessment. Economic indicators, policy shifts, diplomatic engagements, and cross-border alliances would serve as inputs for continuous re-evaluation, ensuring an adaptable and responsive Net Assessment capable of integrating new dynamics as they surface.

Alliances and Laws

In understanding the cultural and economic resilience of Cuba under long-term sanctions and evaluating the implications of Russia's relationship with Cuba within the global power dynamic, a thorough net assessment requires an analysis of several alliances and laws that guide international relations and economic exchanges.

Alliances Relevant to Cuba's Economic Resilience and Sanctions

• United States-Cuba Embargo

  The long-standing economic, commercial, and financial embargo imposed by the U.S. on Cuba has been a cornerstone of the Cuban economic landscape. Instituted after the Cuban Revolution, this embargo is pivotal to understanding Cuba's economic resilience and adaptations.

• Group of 77 (G77) and Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)

  Cuba is a member of these international organizations that advocate for the rights and sovereignty of developing countries, potentially lending support against unilateral sanctions.

• Russia-Cuba Relations

  Diplomatic and economic alliances between Russia and Cuba have historical precedence since the Soviet era, with more recent agreements reflecting shared interests and mutual support, such as Russia’s cancellation of Cuban debt in 2014 and assistance in restoration projects like the Capitolio dome.

• Sino-Cuban Relations

  China, as a rising global power and a key trading partner for Cuba, influences the nation's economic resilience through bilateral trade and investments, potentially challenging U.S. sanctions.

• Venezuela-Cuba Cooperation

  This relationship provided significant aid to Cuba’s economy through oil exchanges and other forms of cooperation, although it has been affected by Venezuela's internal crises.

Laws Relevant to Understanding the Global Power Dynamics

• United Nations Resolutions

  The international community, through UN General Assembly resolutions, has repeatedly called for the end of the embargo on Cuba, highlighting global perspectives on unilateral sanctions.

• International Law and Sanctions

  The applicability and impact of unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. against Cuban entities and international companies dealing with Cuba touch upon the larger debates surrounding the legality and efficacy of sanctions as a form of statecraft.

• Codified Bilateral Agreements

  Agreements between Cuba and allies like Russia and China, addressing trade, finance, and investment, reflect the legal frameworks that sustain Cuba's capacity to navigate sanctions.

• Extraterritorial Application of Laws

  U.S. sanctions on foreign entities engaging with Cuba (Helms-Burton Act), highlight a legal framework where one nation's laws can have far-reaching implications outside its jurisdiction.

•  World Trade Organization (WTO) Principles

  The WTO upholds principles that could be relevant to the U.S.-Cuba embargo and other trade restrictions, although Cuba and its allies' engagement in the organization for recourse is limited.

Relevance of Alliances and Laws

Understanding these alliances and legal frameworks provides insight into how Cuba maintains a level of economic activity despite sanctions, revealing the wider implications of international solidarity against unilateral measures. Cuba’s relations with Russia present an alliance that opposes U.S. hegemony and indicates an evolving multipolar landscape. Russia's support for Cuba, both economically and politically, demonstrates a challenge to traditional power dynamics, suggesting broader geopolitical shifts characterized by increasing non-Western solidarity and cooperation.

The recent statements from the call notes should be weighted equally with other data points, without biasing the analysis. The mention of cultural and religious resilience is pertinent as it touches upon the internal strengths that further enforce Cuba's resolve against sanctions. Furthermore, the efficacy of sanctions, as debated in the local experiences shared, adds context to international criticism and local perspectives on U.S. policies towards Cuba.

In conclusion, Cuba's economic resilience tells a story beyond the immediate impact of sanctions. It reveals the nation's ability to navigate an international landscape redefined by new and historical alliances and the increasingly contested legitimacy of unilateral legal instruments in the face of global calls for sovereignty and multilateralism. The Cuba-Russia relationship symbolizes a broader resistance to traditional power structures and a move towards a world with diversified centers of influence.

Information

- Cristian Veliz, a 22-year-old construction worker, believes it's time for change due to the critical situation in Cuba.

- Cuba experiences its largest anti-government protests in decades due to the coronavirus pandemic and economic issues.

- The Cuban government attributes economic hardships to US sanctions, claiming they cost the island US$5.5 billion last year. Critics dispute this figure and blame the government for not reforming the failing state-run economy.

- The government admits US sanctions and social media are used to organize protests. Critics cite the government's economic failure and tight control over private businesses.

- The pandemic and reduced aid from Venezuela have hurt Cuba's economy, along with currency reforms that caused inflation.

- Many learned about the protests through social media, which became widespread in Cuba in 2018. The government cut off mobile data to suppress social media use.

- The government arrested protestors and established a heavy police presence in response to protests.

- Cuba lifted restrictions on food and medicine imports temporarily after protests.

- President Miguel Diaz-Canel responded to the protests by talking to residents and rallying government supporters.

- The Biden administration supports the Cuban protesters and announced new sanctions against the Cuban government for repressing demonstrators.

- The US has responded cautiously to the protests, considering the political implications in Florida.

- China calls for an end to the US embargo of Cuba in support of the communist-run island.

- Donald Trump issued sanctions against ICC officials and declared a national emergency, calling the ICC a "kangaroo court."

- The UN human rights office expressed concerns about the impact of US sanctions on the ICC's trials and investigations.

- Trump's measures against the ICC aim to protect US personnel from international investigation and prosecution.

- Myanmar's situation post-junta focuses on opposition unity, international recognition of the NUG, economic sanctions against the junta, arms and aid to the opposition, and potential breakdowns of junta forces.

- International community remains reluctant to directly involve with Myanmar's internal affairs, prioritizing diplomatic practice and avoiding direct involvement in the civil war.- Kim Jong Nam's assassination in 2017 involved an Indonesian and a Vietnamese woman who thought they were part of a prank.

- A snatch-and-grab incident in Kuala Lumpur, allegedly by Mossad, remains questionable regarding their involvement.

- Recruitment of agents from unexpected regions is to exploit intelligence agency blind spots, providing plausible deniability for sponsoring nations.

- Russia or China are potential recruiters in the recent Norway arrest of a Malaysian citizen, indicating a trend towards using non-aligned countries' recruits.

- Malaysia remains neutral in the Ukraine conflict; the Malaysian public's pro-Russia sentiment is influenced by various factors.

- Research on Malaysian public perceptions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict examines drivers of pro-Russia sentiment.

- Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has demonstrated an anti-West stance, questioning the Dutch Safety Board's findings on the downing of MH17.

- Temasek's T2030 strategy focuses on agility, adaptability, and anticipation of trends to thrive in a changing landscape.

- Ms. Png Chin Yee, Temasek's CFO, emphasizes the importance of strategic planning and building a resilient portfolio for sustainable value.

- Temasek’s investment portfolio includes a long-term resilient component and a dynamic component for recycling capital into higher-growth opportunities.

- Geopolitical risks influence Temasek’s investments, with teams monitoring developments to make informed decisions, including de-coupling trends.

- Regulatory complexities in trade and investment are managed by Temasek ensuring compliance with legal obligations to minimize impact.

- Commitment to sustainability, Temasek has been carbon neutral since 2020 and aims for net zero by 2050, investing in decarbonization efforts.

- Cyber risks and technological advancements pose challenges, requiring vigilant safeguarding measures.

- Industry 4.0 and Workforce 4.0 change operation models, prompting Temasek to support upskilling to adapt to digital transformations.

- Since 1940, 133 female heads of state or government have been recorded globally, with numbers increasing recently but still small in comparison to men.

- More than 50% of nations have never had a female leader, with Europe leading in female representation in politics and gender politics.

- Link between gender inequality and armed conflict is notable; having female leaders could lead to less violence.

- Gender quotas have been effective in increasing representation, with countries enacting such policies achieving better parity.

- Female leadership is linked to empathy and non-violent approaches, affecting how conflict and state security are handled.

- Russian President Vladimir Putin's traditional values rhetoric suggests that gender inequality is exacerbated by autocratic views.

- The debate continues on whether female leadership in autocratic regimes could lead to different, potentially less aggressive, outcomes.- Protests in Cuba: Largest in decades over COVID-19 and economic issues

- Public outcry in Cuba regarding food/medicine shortages, power outages

- Calls for faster vaccination and political change against Communist rule

- Chants like "Liberty!" and "Down with the dictatorship!" heard during protests

- Cuban government attributes hardships to US sanctions, costing $5.5 billion in 2020

- Critics blame government's handling of the economy and reliance on tourism and Venezuelan aid

- Currency unification in Cuba led to sharp inflation

- Social media played a role in organizing protests; the government shut down mobile data to curb this

- Protests prompted a government response: President Díaz-Canel's call for "revolutionaries" and police arrests

- In a concession, Cuba lifts restrictions on food and medicine import by travelers after protests

- US President Joe Biden expresses support for Cuban protesters, faces political challenge over Cuba policy

- China calls on US to end economic embargo of Cuba and backs the Cuban government

- BRICS Expansion: Several Global South countries show interest in joining BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa)

- The bloc, formed in 2009 is focusing on expanding political influence and reforming global institutions

- BRICS viewed as a counter to US hegemony, representing non-aligned countries' interests

- Over 40 states, including Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Ethiopia, Argentina, Algeria, Iran, Mexico, Turkey, show interest in joining

- Potential new members seek to access BRICS' New Development Bank funds and counter US dominance

- Some applicants, however, may bring in destabilizing dynamics

- BRICS has a history of standing against Cold War superpowers and is seen as challenging US-led global order

- Membership expansion would mean a significant shift in the world economic order, especially if the reliance on the US dollar decreases

- The BRICS group is cautious about expansion, considering internal cohesion and bilateral relations among members

- Cuba, with strong ties to existing BRICS members and anti-US stance, is a suitable candidate

COVID-19 Impact on Education:

  - Families faced challenges with at-home work and school during pandemic

  - Technology's role in education has increased, leading to smarter learning

  - Personalized teaching and learning experiences were enhanced via technology

  - Online parent-teacher interactions and community forums improved participation

  - Hong Kong schools cite resilience as a key trait developed among students

  - The pandemic emphasized the importance of custom tailored education for each student

  - Practices like one-to-one video conferencing and clear learning goals are to be retained in post-pandemic schooling

  - Conversational assessments gain importance in online learning environments- Russia provided support to Cuba during the COVID-19 pandemic by donating oxygen and medical supplies and postponing Cuba's debt payments until 2027.

- Prior to its invasion of Ukraine, Russia donated 25,000 tons of wheat to Cuba to help with shortages and delivered several cargoes of fuel. A new wheat supply deal is planned.

- Cuba is in dire need of aid as its industry and agriculture have collapsed, leading to long lines for fuel, food, and medicine, fueling tensions and mass exodus of citizens.

- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy plans to address Mexican lawmakers via video to garner international support.

- Several nations, predominantly from the Global South, are considering joining BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) as it challenges US hegemony and offers access to the New Development Bank, particularly sought after post-COVID-19.

- Over 40 countries aspire to join BRICS; 13 formal applications had been received by May.

- BRICS formed in 2009 with a political tone of reforming global institutions and countering US dominance.

- Expansion of BRICS is challenging due to cohesion on key issues; potential new members might bring instability.

- BRICS' political character draws from a history of non-alignment dating back to the 1955 Bandung Conference.

- Key BRICS members have problematic bilateral relations that could complicate expansion.

- Ideologically, Cuba is well-positioned for BRICS membership due to strong ties with members and counter-hegemonic history.

- The effectiveness of an expanded BRICS hinges on coherent action; internal rivalries are a concern.

- A BRICS-plus strategy may evolve, granting full membership over time to candidates aligned with the bloc's vision.

- The Russia-Ukraine conflict has prompted NATO mobilization in Europe and a reevaluation of the alliance's role and identity.

- NATO was created in 1949, with Article 5 establishing mutual defense obligations; this has only been invoked once after the September 11 attacks.

- Internal tensions within NATO have surfaced again, with some members emphasizing peace and others advocating a stronger stance against Russia.

- The US has vowed to defend NATO allies, promising increased troop presence in Poland and Romania while expressing concern for Ukraine's situation.

- China urges the US to end its embargo on Cuba, backing the Cuban government amid significant protest over shortages and economic distress.

- The collapse of South Africa's apartheid regime is cited as a unique case of isolation, highlighting the role of engagement over confrontation in international relations.

- Chinese investments in Vietnam surge as U.S. economic activity slows, with China becoming Vietnam's biggest foreign investor and trade with the US dropping.

- Vietnam's strategic importance as a manufacturing hub and its complex ties with China are highlighted amid continued South China Sea disputes.

- BRICS originated to balance developed nations' power and now also addresses broader global political and security issues.

- BRICS shows solidarity without condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine, in contrast to the G7's more punitive approach to the conflict.- Anonymous complaints are not permitted by ACRA, potentially causing missed critical information.

- Concerns about abuse of shell companies and nominee directorships in Singapore.

- Mak Yuen Teen is a Professor of Accounting and director of the Centre for Investor Protection at NUS Business School.

- Several countries are considering joining the BRICS bloc to escape Western domination.

- BRICS, formed in 2009, has shifted from economic to a political focus.

- Over 40 states wish to join BRICS; 13 have formally applied by May.

- The group focuses on harmonizing vision and potential new members may disrupt current dynamics.

- BRICS challenges US hegemony and has a political history dating back to the Bandung Conference of 1955.

- The New Development Bank of BRICS offers access to funds, particularly post-COVID.

- An expanded BRICS could impact the global economic order by attempting to reduce US dollar reliance.

- Internal BRICS relations, such as between Saudi Arabia and Russia, affect expansion.

- Cuba, with strong ties and counter-hegemonic stance, is a likely candidate for BRICS membership.

- BRICS is considering a strategic and cautious expansion with different membership levels.

- Cuba seeks over US$8 billion in foreign investment for 246 projects to revitalize its economy.

- Economic weapons in war have increased in power due to globalization and cross-border supply chains.

- Sanctions are a new form of warfare with indeterminate impact, requiring analysis and rule-setting.

- The US used sanctions against Russia instead of troops to contain escalation into nuclear conflict.

- US economic sanctions impact Russia but not as heavily as expected due to global oil market dynamics.

- US should use "triadic sanctions" to more effectively prevent circumvention of sanctions.

- The US government needs to communicate that sanctions target Putin's regime, not the Russian people.

- Discussions suggest establishing formal rules for economic warfare, with lessons from history.

- Calls for setting clear rules for what is permissible in economic conflict are being addressed.

- Orthodox Christians in Ukraine celebrated Christmas on December 25 as a break from Russian religious authorities.

- The US imposed sanctions on Cuban police in response to protests and crackdowns.

- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Cuba to discuss strengthening political and economic ties.

- Russia and Cuba, both facing US sanctions, condemn American "rules" and support a different world order.

- Russia seeks solidarity with allies in Latin America against perceived US hegemony.- Sergei Lavrov announced countermeasures following NATO's expulsion of Moscow's delegation members for alleged spying.

- Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban faces pressure to ratify Sweden's bid to join NATO after Hungary agreed to new EU aid for Ukraine worth 50 billion euros.

- Hungary was the only EU member state not to back the EU deal at a December summit and is also the last NATO country to ratify Sweden's NATO membership.

- Orban has better ties with Russia but supports Sweden in NATO; however, ratification is delayed pending a meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

- Hungarian opposition lawmakers call for an extraordinary parliamentary session to discuss Sweden's NATO accession.

- Senior US lawmakers urge Hungary to promptly approve Sweden's NATO accession, implying relations with the US might be harmed otherwise.

- Hungary has resisted sending weapons to Ukraine or overtly demanding anything from NATO concerning Sweden's accession.

- The EU has already freed up access to some funds for Hungary but continues to withhold 20 billion euros due to concerns over democracy under Orban.

- The European Parliament's committee endorses draft EU rules to prevent disputes over patents essential to telecoms and connected cars, despite the tech industry's opposition.

- Nokia, Ericsson, and Siemens criticize the draft rules, fearing they could compromise EU leadership in innovative technologies and redistribute revenues.

- The rules aim to avoid lengthy litigation on standard essential patents (SEPs) but face criticism that they would add burdens on patent holders instead of implementers.

- China increases its military engagements in Southeast Asia, with exercises like Cope Thunder, Cobra Gold, and Garuda Shield expanding in scale and participation.

- China's military interactions with Southeast Asia are seen as efforts to build confidence, but it's unclear if they'll alter China's maritime claims.

- Analysts predict ASEAN nations will continue balancing US and Chinese influence, emphasizing regional peace and prosperity.

- Climate scenario analysis emerges as an essential tool for companies to understand risks to assets from climate change, driven by increasing demands from regulators and investors.

- The process allows companies and investors to assess strategies against different climate scenarios, with regulators like TCFD and ISSB setting reporting standards.

- Hong Kong and China Gas (Towngas) uses climate scenario analysis to evaluate risks under various climate scenarios.

- Hong Kong aims for mandatory TCFD-aligned climate disclosures by 2025, with HKEX proposing mandatory climate-related disclosures in ESG reports.

- Climate scenario analysis requires a mindset shift towards forward-looking estimations and transparent reporting.

- The TCFD provides guidelines for integrating scenarios into climate reporting, suggesting organisations consider the resilience of their strategies in different climate scenarios.

- The Financial Times offers the free Editor's Digest newsletter and supports educational programs with free access to stories and resources.- Russia is considering restoring military bases in Vietnam and Cuba, which were pivotal during the Cold War, with Russian Deputy Defence Minister Nikolai Pankov stating, "We are dealing with this issue."

- Western nations have condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine and imposed sanctions, but many countries, particularly in the Global South, have not joined this united front.

- China has shown tacit support for Russia, Belarus is actively supporting Russia by serving as a staging ground, and countries like Brazil, India, and South Africa are opting for non-alignment.

- The Non-Aligned Movement, established in 1961, includes principles like anti-colonialism, anti-imperialism, sovereignty, non-aggression, and non-interference; however, it faces challenges in unifying against violations like Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

- The movement is at odds over how to react to powerful state violations of core principles. An example is the division experienced during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

- The relevance of non-alignment has increased due to global integration, and many countries rely on trade with Western powers and China or military equipment from different sources like India does from Russia.

- The Non-Aligned Movement potentially weakens international security norms by not collectively opposing clear acts of aggression, as seen with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

- Most Non-Aligned Movement members condemn Russian attacks, but only Singapore has imposed sanctions; others avoid taking a stand, leaving the burden on the United States and its allies.

- In Cuba, there have been significant anti-government protests due to shortages of food, medicine, electricity, Covid-19 challenges, and demands for political change.

- The Cuban government attributes the hardships to U.S. sanctions costing $5.5 billion last year, while critics blame the government's economic policies.

- The government has temporarily lifted restrictions on food and medicine brought by travelers in response to protests; President Diaz-Canel interacted with protestors and foreign intervention is blamed for unrest.

- President Joe Biden expressed support for Cuban protestors. China has urged the U.S. to end the economic embargo on Cuba, with the Cuban government acknowledging underlying causes for the protests.

- Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Cuba, discussing cooperation in various sectors with President Miguel Diaz-Canel. Cuba seeks to strengthen ties with allies like Russia and China amid U.S. sanctions.

- Brazilian President Lula da Silva communicated to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy his intention to promote peace talks to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.- Brazilian President Lula discusses neutrality on Ukraine conflict with Zelenskyy via Twitter.

- Lula proposes the formation of a mediator group for peaceful resolution, rejects sending Brazilian artillery ammunition to Ukraine.

- He emphasizes Russia's mistake in invasion but also suggests Ukraine's Zelenskyy partly responsible, according to Time magazine interview.

- On the one-year anniversary of the conflict, Zelenskyy calls for a summit with Latin American leaders.

- The UN maintains sanctions on North Korea for nuclear developments.

- North Korea plans a satellite fleet to monitor South Korea and US military bases, approximately 28,500 US troops in South Korea.

- Analysts suggest missile launches are to bolster support before the Workers' Party meeting and to negotiate with the US.

- US commits to defending South Korea, discusses upgraded military deterrence with South Korea including nuclear assets.

- The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is stationed off South Korea as tension rises.

- After North Korea's satellite launch, South Korea suspends a military agreement, and North Korea vows to strengthen its border forces, increasing risk of conflict.

- Potential conflicts in Korea could draw in the US, with North Korea's ties to Russia and China complicating matters.

- UN Security Council unlikely to punish North Korea further due to opposition from Russia and China.

- Israeli failure to anticipate Hamas attack raises questions about reliance on high-tech surveillance and AI.

- Over 700 Israelis and hundreds of Palestinians dead after largest surprise attack since 1973.

- Israeli officials were confident in their surveillance capabilities prior to the attack.

- Israeli and foreign intelligence services surprised by the attack, drawing parallels with possible conflicts like Taiwan.

- The density of Gaza likely helped Hamas in planning the attack without detection.

- Regional dynamics complicate as fight for Al Aqsa mosque and mounting confrontations intensify stakes in Middle East.

- Saudi Arabia's and Israel's potential deal, Iran's backing of attacks, and Syria's unstable borders indicate complex regional relations.

- Russia and China's potential involvement scrutinized following the Gaza conflict.

- At a 2021 US-China meeting, China contests US-defining "rules-based international order."

- International order seen as dominated by powerful countries, not the UN.

- US-China relationships are to be managed through new mechanisms for pressing issues.

- Russia uses historical narratives to influence Southeast Asia, shifts focus from Western ties to yuan-based contracts and energy resources, sees the potential for significant changes over time.

- Macau Grand Prix, started in 1954, celebrates 70th year, known for dangerous tracks but carries cultural and historical significance.

- Beijing pledges to uphold international morals, fight against power politics and bullying, and leverage institutional strengths amid external uncertainties.- A multipolar world with equal treatment of all countries, irrespective of size, and rejection of hegemonism are promoted by China.

- China's president emphasizes opposing globalization rollback, unilateralism, and protectionism, and advocates for more open economic globalization, benefiting all.

- Global power dynamics are shifting with the rise of China and other developing countries, reducing Western dominance.

- China views itself as a potential peace broker and leader for the Global South, amid global conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine.

- Central Conference on Foreign Affairs Work in China has taken place in 2006, 2014, and 2018, aligning with post-party congress patterns.

- The 2018 conference highlighted the shaping of China’s international relations and showcased confidence in its diplomatic path.

- China's specific diplomatic behaviors are more telling than general statements for assessing policy changes.

- Uncertainty remains over whether China will shift foreign policy in light of upcoming US and Taiwan presidential elections.

UN sanctions on North Korea continue due to nuclear missile development.

North Korea:

- Intends to launch a fleet of satellites to monitor US and South Korean military bases using Malligyong-1 and has about 28,500 US troops in South Korea.

- Test-fired about 100 ballistic missiles in the past year to advance their nuclear arsenal.

- Seeks to bolster domestic support ahead of important Workers’ Party meeting.

- South Korea and US are updating their extended deterrence strategy.

- US Navy’s USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier is present off South Korea, representing military backing.

Regional Dynamics:

- South Korea partly suspended a 2018 military agreement with North Korea, leading to a possible increase in armed conflicts along the Korean Military Demarcation Line.

- US and allies, Russia, and China could become significantly involved in any conflict on the Korean peninsula.

- UN Security Council unlikely to punish North Korea further, especially given Russia and China’s position.

Global Economic Shifts:

- China's export dominance is declining, creating openings for other emerging markets like Mexico, India, and Southeast Asian nations to fill the gap.

- China-focused mutual funds saw net outflows, while emerging market funds excluding China saw inflows.

- Investors are shifting from China-focused funds to looking at opportunities elsewhere in Asia Pacific and emerging markets.

- Several issues (political pressure, reputational risks, compliance concerns) make it difficult to justify investments in China.

Vietnam’s Foreign Relations (“Bamboo Diplomacy”):

- Vietnam upgraded ties with major global powers, embracing a flexible, dynamic foreign policy.

- Agreements with China include cooperation on diverse sectors despite South China Sea disputes.

- US-Vietnam partnership elevated to counter China's influence and secure supply chains.

- Strategic ties with Japan, South Korea, and Vatican established, enhancing security and economic cooperation.

- Future strategy includes deepening relations with Australia and possibly France.

UK-Russia-NATO Relations:

- UK Prime Minister David Cameron urges NATO to rethink its relationship with Russia and maintain a strong presence in Eastern Europe in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine.

- In reaction to the strained relations, Russia suspended its mission to NATO and closed the alliance’s offices in Moscow.- China has historically been Russia's second-largest arms client after India.

- Former Soviet republic Ukraine has sold military equipment and technology to China, including the Varyag aircraft carrier, missile systems, and a fighter jet prototype.

- During the Ukraine war, China has denied providing weapons to Moscow.

- Military expenditure by country in 2021 (in US$ billion): US ($800.7), China ($293.4), India ($76.6), UK ($68.4), Russia ($65.9).

- Ukraine has support from western nations; some tensions persist within Europe, with China and many African countries remaining allies of Moscow.

- Taiwan's 2023 National Defense Report deemed inadequate amid increasing military pressure from China.

- Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen seeks "peaceful coexistence" with China.

- Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu warns of potential conflict with China by 2027; US intelligence agrees.

- Taipei receives military aid from the US under the Foreign Military Financing program, signaling a political and military upgrade from historical military aid practices.

- Beijing criticizes a US$80 million military equipment sale to Taiwan.

- US approved total arms sales to Taiwan could reach half a billion dollars in 2023; seeks an additional US$113 million in global FMF for the next year.

- China launched at least 40 remote sensing satellites in 2023, with plans to reach 60-70 by year-end, likely partly for reconnaissance.

- The Ukraine conflict showcased the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare.

- Taiwan unveiled its first homemade submarine on September 28, 2023; plans to build eight, in contrast to China's estimate of 60 submersibles.

- RAND Corporation advises Taiwan to focus security efforts narrowly and revise military purchases.

- Delivery of 66 US-made F-16 fighters to Taiwan delayed until 2026 due to software problems.

- Global divisions and partnerships highlighted by the war in Ukraine.

- China and Russia have strengthened ties, countering US influence; Russia is a top diplomatic partner for China.

- A long-standing border of 4,300 km exists between China and Russia; the Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation governs relations.

- China is Russia's largest trade partner, and the trade volume increased post-Ukraine war sanctions.

- In August 2022, China imported from Russia goods worth $11.36 billion and exported $10 billion.

- China and Russia hold veto powers as permanent members of the UN Security Council.

- Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have met more than 40 times since 2013.

- Both countries are members of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

- Data and information sourced from UN Comtrade Database, Reuters, Channel News Asia, Economist, Financial Times, and SCMP, as of June 30, 2022.- Russian businessman Evgeny Lebedev, promoted by Boris Johnson to the House of Lords, co-owns the Evening Standard and the Independent.

- Rupert Murdoch owns the Times and the Sun.

- An article poses essay questions regarding the influence of media over UK politics, styled after AQA and Edexcel Politics exams, suggesting research on media moguls and consideration of various media types, including TV and social media.

- Graham Goodlad from Portsmouth High School is cited in relation to the media and politics.

- Race relations in Singapore strained during COVID-19, leading to racist incidents amplified on social media.

- Specific incidents mentioned: online backlash against a National Day banner featuring a Singaporean Indian family; a lecturer's racist comments to an interracial couple.

- Racism associated with economic frustrations and COVID-19, specifically targeting the Indian community due to the Delta variant.

- Singapore's multiracial approach detailed, emphasizing deliberate nation-building, equality, and harmony principles by the founding fathers.

- English chosen as a working language to prevent racial privilege, with mother tongues preserved, including Malay as the national language.

- Multiracial harmony in Singapore achieved through mutual compromise and give-and-take between ethnic groups.

- Singapore has maintained racial peace for over half a century, but this balance is fragile and not naturally occurring.

- Racial tensions evolving domestically and influenced by international events such as Black Lives Matter and Middle East conflicts.

- Acknowledgment of generational differences in perceptions of race and calls for sensitive adjustments to race and religion policies based on Singapore's needs, cautioning against adopting foreign trends without context.

- Announced intention to pass Maintenance of Racial Harmony Act to centralize government powers dealing with racial issues and adopt softer measures alongside punitive ones.

- Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act exists parallelly, having restrained intolerance and promoted religious harmony without invoking punishments.

- The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), originally focused on security, now expanding outreach to sanction-affected countries, looking to bolster economic roles against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

- The United States imposed sanctions on Cuba's defense minister Leopoldo Cintra Frias and his children for human rights violations and supporting Venezuelan President Maduro.

- Analysis by experts warning of a hypersonic arms race with potentially dangerous consequences of miscalculation and retaliatory strikes as countries including the US, China, and Russia develop these weapons.

- New US sanctions against Cuba following its violent crackdown on demonstrators, targeting governmental individuals responsible for repressing protests demanding freedom.

- Cuba accuses the US of instigating July 2021 protests, alleging financial and incitement support, and maintains the stance while current relations between the US and Cuba remain strained, with calls for prisoner releases unmet due to fundamental policy disagreements.

- Commemorative events by Cuban emigres on the anniversary of the protests, with Havana remaining quiet despite increased security presence.- Education systems need reconsideration, particularly in structure, content delivery, teacher roles, and student involvement in learning.

- Greater attention is needed for students' social and mental well-being, especially after months of home schooling during the pandemic.

- Counselling teams and teachers at international schools like CDNIS have prepared for the impact of class suspension on student mental health.

- Helen Kelly, the principal at CDNIS, emphasizes the importance of understanding each student's social and emotional status to address any developed problems.

- CDNIS consulted Prepare and ISCA for additional support, all teachers were trained to handle students' pandemic-related anxiety.

- ESF is enhancing personal and social development programs to aid students in transitioning back to school, focusing on managing feelings and providing targeted support.

- Bitcoin exhibited significant volatility; between June 8-15, its value swung from US$32,462 to US$40,993, and from May 15 to June 15, it ranged from US$34,259 to US$49,304.

- The market-driven volatility of Bitcoin makes it unsuitable for macroeconomic stabilization.

- El Salvador's President, Nayib Bukele, sees Bitcoin as a way to reduce the cost of remittance transfers; World Bank reports the average global cost to send US$200 is around US$13 (6.5%).

- Despite calls to reduce fees in line with the UN and G20 directives, remittance costs remain high.

- Remittances to low- and medium-income countries in 2020 were US$540 billion, higher than foreign direct investment and overseas development assistance for the same year.

- Lowering remittance fees to 2% could potentially increase remittances by US$16 billion annualy.

- The current remittance system is fragmented and relies on banks that charge high fees; many migrants and their families lack access to banks.

- 1.7 billion people globally are unbanked, and some require transfers to countries with limited integration to the international payment system.

- Bukele aims to challenge the high-fee system but using Bitcoin is not the appropriate tool due to the need for coordinated cross-border policies.

- China's President Xi Jinping supports Cuba in defending its sovereignty and opposes foreign interference and the US economic blockade.

- Xi promises support for Cuba’s economic and social development and acknowledges Cuba's support for China on vital issues.

- Cuban-Chinese relations are at an "all-time high" as per discussions between Xi and Cuban President Diaz-Canel.

- Taxi driver Mr. Goh faces a 35% income loss compared to pre-pandemic times due to competition, the pandemic, and rising costs.

- Younger taxi drivers adapt more to technology and ride-hailing apps, while older drivers prefer traditional means like flagging down rides.

- About 34% of drivers with a Taxi Driver's Vocational Licence (TDVL) are aged 60 and above, compared to 8.5% of those with a Private Hire Car Driver's Vocational Licence (PDVL).

- Taxi fleets in Singapore have halved between 2014 and 2022, while private hire vehicles have more than tripled.

- Older commuters also suffer due to longer waits at taxi stands caused by declining taxi numbers.

- The value of New York City taxi medallions plummeted from US$1 million in 2014 to US$100,000 in 2021.

- Malaysia experienced a significant decline in taxi service demand, leading to 70,000 taxis being abandoned.

- The total number of point-to-point vehicles (taxis and private hires) in Singapore has decreased, causing a rise in surge pricing.

- Commuter demand is increasing but is still below pre-pandemic levels, and the taxi industry seems to be most affected.

- SUSS economist Walter Theseira suggests the taxi industry must adapt to survive, highlighting that taxis have the unique ability to accept street-hail rides and can use ride-hailing apps.### Natural Resources & Trade in Afghanistan

- Afghanistan has untapped minerals like copper, lithium, rare earths, which are economically significant to China.

- Bilal Karimi, Afghanistan's ambassador to Beijing, discussed Mes Aynak, the world's second-largest copper deposit (40 km from Kabul), with Chinese state-owned company MCC.

- MCC won exploitation rights worth US$3.5 billion in 2008; developments stalled due to war and the discovery of Buddhist archaeological remains.

- China is interested in Afghan oil; Sino-Afghan extraction from 18 wells began in the northwestern Amu Basin.

- Plans for Chinese companies to invest $500 million in Afghan solar energy.

New Silk Road

- A 300km road connecting Badakhshan to the Chinese border will boost trade (currently US$1.5 billion/year).

- Security remains crucial for China, which was affected by a December 2022 Islamic State attack on a Kabul hotel.

- Taliban assured China to prevent Afghan soil from being used for attacks; neighboring Pakistan believes these promises are unkept.

- Beijing delivered humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, where a "Chinatown" exists, hinting at China's "Belt and Road" infrastructure project.

- Afghanistan might integrate into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor leading to the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar.

Role of First Ladies in Diplomacy

- First ladies in the West have been active in diplomacy, with Olena Zelenska of Ukraine recently seeking military support.

- China's Peng Liyuan has supported Xi Jinping's foreign policy since 2013.

- First ladies have participated in diplomatic missions and solo trips, e.g., Michelle Obama's 2014 trip to China.

- Three aspects of first lady diplomacy: managing president's credibility, encouraging international relations, and engaging in social activism.

- First ladies help construct national image and advance human rights and women's issues internationally (e.g., Eleanor Roosevelt's role in UDHR and Michelle Obama's Let Girls Learn program).

Global Economic Impact of Ukraine War

- The Ukraine war introduced uncertainties, compounded economic issues from the COVID-19 pandemic.

- Devastated Ukraine's economy by a third, sanctions deprive Russia of energy revenues.

- Fears of mass energy rationing in Europe mitigated by preparation and mild winter.

- IMF estimates 3.4% global growth in 2022, down one point from pre-war forecast.

- War creates an energy transition push, investment in renewables is crucial.

- Sanctions on Russia question future global trade trends, risks of hostile trade blocs.

- Wider conflict could lead to comprehensive sanctions on Russia.

Singapore's Energy Market

- Russian military mobilization impacted energy markets, heightened LNG prices.

- Singapore's electricity, 95% generated from natural gas, seeing rising costs.

- Long-term contracts protect Singapore from volatile LNG prices but overall commodity price increase affects gas contracts.

- Industrial sector and companies reliant on gas or LNG face increasing costs, may pass on to consumers.

- LNG demand, price management vital as most gas supply will be from LNG by 2030.- Anti-Western sentiment contradicts principles of Indonesia's free and active foreign policy; favors non-alignment and non-interference.

- Indonesia, as part of the Non-Aligned Movement, focuses on world peace and social justice.

- During its 2022 G20 presidency, Indonesia acted as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

- Joining BRICS could complicate relations with the West and affect diplomatic ties with the US and Western countries.

- Despite not joining BRICS, Indonesia recognizes its strategic economic importance.

- BRICS aims for "de-dollarisation," aligning with Indonesia's goal to use the rupiah more in international trade.

- Indonesia sees potential benefits from BRICS New Development Bank in strengthening the rupiah.

- China's economic recovery post-COVID has been uneven, with challenges in domestic demand and external difficulties.

- The Politburo emphasizes China's economic resilience and long-term positive trends.

- China aims to shift focus from growth targets to systemic resilience, internal economic cycles, and sustainable, high-quality development.

- Goals for 2025 and 2035 include becoming a high-income nation and a moderately developed nation, respectively.

- Yu Miaojie, an economist, is confident China will reach its GDP growth targets with further reforms.

- By 2035, China aims to be a manufacturing superpower and a leader in emerging industries.

- US allies are reducing reliance on China, affecting its role as the top manufacturer and exporter.

- Mexico has replaced China as the US' biggest trading partner for the first time since 2014.

- China's anti-espionage law has raised concerns among foreign investors regarding clarity and business complications.

- European Chamber of Commerce poll shows 46% of companies are shifting investments out of China.

- Xi Jinping places national security over economic growth, impacting his policy decisions.

- Despite challenges, China's economic competition with the US is robust, with its recovery better than expected.

- China refrained from condemning Russia's military actions in Ukraine, aligning with Moscow amid global divisions.

- China and Russia have built a strong partnership, countering US influence.

- Their partnership includes cooperation in international affairs, military, and technological development.

- Xi and Putin have met over 40 times since 2013, solidifying relations through bilateral and multilateral engagements.

- China and Russia share a 4,300km border and have several agreements promoting good neighborliness and cooperation.

- China is Russia's largest trade partner; Russia is China's largest oil supplier and among the largest in gas supplies.

- They have agreed to use roubles and yuan for gas payments, looking to avoid Western pressures.

- Both countries are permanent UN Security Council members with veto powers.

- China and Russia lead the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation for regional security and economic cooperation.

- Historical timeline of China-Russia relations includes ideological splits, military conflicts, and normalization of ties.

- Military cooperation is crucial, with China engaging in multilateral and bilateral military exercises, including with Russia.- China and Russia lead the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation for security and economic cooperation.

- October 2, 1949: The Soviet Union first recognizes the People's Republic of China.

- 1950-1953: Moscow and Beijing support North Korea in the Korean War against South Korea and the West.

- Early 1960s: Soviet-Chinese relations deteriorate with border clashes in 1969.

- October 1982: Dialogue on normalising Soviet-Chinese ties restarts.

- May 1989: Sino-Soviet summit held, the first since the 1950s, thawing relations.

- September 1994: Russia and China agree not to target each other with nuclear weapons and demarcate their western border (eastern border pact in 1991).

- July 2001: Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Putin sign a friendship and trade pact.

- August 2005: China and Russia conduct Peace Mission 2005, their first joint military exercises.

- October 2011: China and Russia declare a "comprehensive strategic and cooperative partnership".

- March 2014: Russia annexes Crimea, with China's position on recognition unclear.

- June 2019: Xi and Putin upgrade relations to a "new era" and increase security cooperation.

- February 2022: Xi meets Putin during the Beijing Winter Olympics, claiming "no limits" friendship; Russia invades Ukraine weeks later.

- Defence cooperation is key to China-Russia relations, with the first multilateral military exercise with SCO members in 2003.

- Military exercises involving China and Russia steadily increase from 2003 to 2022.

- China, once Russia’s second-largest arms client, has had historic defence ties with Ukraine, including military equipment and technology purchases.

- Military expenditure in 2021: China ($293.4B), India ($76.6B), UK ($68.4B), and Russia ($65.9B).

- Temasek's T2030 strategy focuses on agility, adaptability, and anticipating trends.

- Ms. Png Chin Yee, CFO at Temasek, outlines the T2030 strategy for navigating a complex landscape.

- Temasek's investment approach involves a diversified portfolio, considering financial landscape and macroeconomic policies.

- Geopolitical events and decoupling in a post-COVID world influence Temasek's investment strategies and risk assessments.

- Trade and investment restrictions require Temasek's compliance with legal and regulatory frameworks.

- Sustainability and climate change are central to Temasek's operations with the objective of net zero by 2050.

- Temasek addresses cyber risks and the transformation of industry and workforce (Industry 4.0 and Workforce 4.0).

- The overall strategy involves navigating challenges through strategic planning, investments, and adapting to emerging trends.

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