Diaspora Dynamics: Shaping Elections and Global Influence
2nd April, 2024
What implications does the increasing involvement of diaspora communities in homeland politics have on the conduct and outcome of elections in democracies like India?
First Layer
The phenomenon of the Indian diaspora's burgeoning political influence globally, particularly its implications on the conduct and outcomes of elections in India, represents a multifaceted intersection of transnational identities, economics, digital engagement, and geopolitical dynamics. This comprehensive analysis aims to dissect these complex layers, grounded in empirical evidence and detailed case studies, to offer nuanced insights into the diaspora's transformative role in India's democratic landscape.
Empirical Data on Economic Contributions and Political Engagement
The Indian diaspora, estimated at over 31 million individuals globally, plays a pivotal role in India's economy through remittances, amounting to approximately USD 83 billion in 2019. These economic contributions furnish the diaspora with a substantial platform to influence political and electoral discourses in India. For instance, the state of Kerala witnessed a significant increase in development projects and welfare schemes ahead of the 2021 state assembly elections, predominantly funded by the remittances from the Gulf countries, evidencing a direct correlation between diaspora economic contributions and electoral strategies.
Digital Campaigns: Mechanisms and Impact
Digital platforms have emerged as a critical arena for the Indian diaspora's political engagement. A case in point is the "Overseas Friends of BJP" (OFBJP) organization, which has orchestrated extensive social media campaigns targeting Indian voters through platforms like WhatsApp and Facebook. These campaigns, often characterized by tailored regional and linguistic content, have not only amplified the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) electoral narrative but also mobilized non-resident Indians (NRIs) to participate in door-to-door campaigns in India during elections. Such initiatives underscore the diaspora's ability to influence on-ground electoral dynamics via digital mobilization.
Analyzing the Diverse Influences within the Diaspora
The Indian diaspora is not a monolithic entity; its political leanings are as varied as its sociocultural fabric. This diversity was starkly evident during the 2019 General Elections, wherein segments of the diaspora vociferously supported the BJP, citing Modi's developmental policies, while others rallied against the government, expressing concerns over issues like citizenship laws and press freedom. This polarization within the diaspora underscores the need to understand the nuanced differences in political engagement and their differential impacts on electoral politics in India.
Potential Negative Implications and the Need for a Balanced View
While the diaspora's engagement in homeland politics has bolstered India's democratic vibrancy and increased political participation, it also raises significant concerns regarding undue foreign influence and potential misinformation campaigns. The 2020 Delhi legislative assembly elections witnessed instances of misleading information disseminated by diaspora-led digital campaigns, aiming to sway voter perceptions. Such phenomena highlight the critical need for mechanisms to ensure transparency and accountability in diaspora-led political engagements, emphasizing the necessity of a balanced examination of their influence.
Recommendations for Leveraging Diaspora Influence
Policy Framework for Diaspora Engagement
Establish a comprehensive policy framework to engage the Indian diaspora constructively, recognizing their contributions while ensuring political engagements uphold democratic values and national interests.
Digital Literacy Campaigns
Launch digital literacy campaigns aimed at enhancing the electorate's ability to discern credible information, countering misinformation, and fostering informed political participation.
Diaspora Advisory Bodies
Formulate diaspora advisory bodies that serve as bridges between the Indian government and the diaspora, facilitating transparent and responsible political advocacy and contributions.
Research and Data Collection
Invest in research initiatives to systematically collect data and analyze the impact of diaspora engagements on electoral outcomes, guiding evidence-based policy-making.
Conclusion
The Indian diaspora's political influence is a double-edged sword, with the potential to both enrich India's democratic processes and introduce complexities in electoral conduct and outcomes. A proactive, nuanced, and evidence-based approach is imperative to navigate these waters, ensuring that the diaspora's engagement fosters a more inclusive, informed, and equitable democratic landscape in India. The journey ahead necessitates a collective effort from policymakers, diaspora communities, and civil society, aimed at leveraging the diaspora's potential while safeguarding the sanctity of India's electoral democracy.
Second Layer
This refined analysis delves deeper into the intricate dynamics encapsulating the burgeoning political influence of the Indian diaspora on electoral processes in India. The aim is to present a more nuanced, technically detailed, and evidence-backed narrative that embraces complexity, minimizes bias, and incorporates previously unexplored dimensions of diaspora influence, thereby offering a holistic assessment of its implications for democracy in India.
Economic Contributions and Political Influence: Bridging the Gap with Regulatory Insights
While it's recognized that the Indian diaspora, with its substantial economic contributions through remittances, holds potential sway over political discourses in India, a critical examination of the regulatory mechanisms is essential. The Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA), 2010, meticulously restricts political parties in India from directly receiving foreign contributions, including diaspora remittances, aimed at political activities or campaigns. However, indirect influences manifest through diaspora-funded nonprofits or trusts that engage in developmental projects, thereby potentially swaying public opinion and voter preferences in favor of specific political entities. Thus, while direct political funding through diaspora remittances is legally circumscribed, the socio-political capital acquired via developmental initiatives presents a nuanced pathway for diaspora influence on electoral politics.
Digital Campaigns: Dissecting the Mechanisms
The narrative around digital campaigns orchestrated by diaspora entities, such as the Overseas Friends of BJP, necessitates a deeper exploration of their modus operandi. An example can be seen in the 2019 General Elections, where the OFBJP's active engagement across platforms like WhatsApp, Facebook, and Twitter utilized targeted advertisements, infographics, and language-specific content aimed at the Indian electorate. Notably, a study published in the journal "Political Communication" highlighted how WhatsApp groups administered by diaspora members facilitated information sharing and mobilization efforts, with the BJP employing over 900,000 volunteers for its "Main Bhi Chowkidar" campaign, reflecting a sophisticated integration of digital engagement strategies by the diaspora in bolstering electoral campaigns.
Addressing Analytical Depth: Beyond Conventional Channels
To transcend the conventional discourse on economic and digital influences, this analysis introduces a focus on transnational educational initiatives and legal advocacy spearheaded by the diaspora. An illustrative case is the "India Conference" at Harvard, an annual student-led event that invites politicians, business leaders, and academics from India, which has emerged as a significant platform for diaspora-led discourse shaping perceptions about India's democratic processes and political challenges. Similarly, diaspora legal advocacy, as exemplified by the "Coalition for the Defense of the Constitution and Democracy (CDCD)," operates under the ambit of constitutionalism and has been vocal in international forums about perceived democratic backsliding in India, thereby indirectly influencing political narratives within influential sections of the Indian electorate.
Counteracting Bias and Enhancing Objectivity
Acknowledging potential biases entails critically examining the ramifications of diaspora influence, including exacerbation of political polarization and ethno-religious divides within the Indian polity. A study by the Pew Research Center underscores a growing perception of nationalism and religion's intertwining in India's political fabric, concerns echoed within diaspora discourses, thereby amplifying domestic sensitivities and divisions. Addressing such biases necessitates a balanced acknowledgment of the diaspora's diversely politicized factions and their varying impacts on India's political landscape.
Concluding with Precision: Policy Recommendations and Directional Shifts
To substantiate the concluding impacts and recommendations, this analysis advocates for the establishing of a "Diaspora Engagement Regulatory Framework (DERF)," aimed at monitoring and guiding diaspora contributions and activities with potential political implications. This framework would work closely with the Election Commission of India and the Ministry of External Affairs, integrating best practices from nations with significant diaspora influences, to ensure that diaspora engagements enhance democratic participation without undermining electoral integrity. Further, a National Digital Literacy Mission (NDLM) is proposed, focusing on enhancing digital discernment among voters, aimed at mitigating misinformation campaigns, with special modules on understanding AI-generated content and deepfakes, a rapidly emerging challenge as underscored by incidents in other democracies.
By meticulously addressing the highlighted criticisms through a comprehensive, evidence-based approach that expands the analytical scope and deepens the debate on diaspora influence in Indian elections, this refined analysis endeavours to provide a balanced, forward-looking perspective on leveraging diaspora potential while safeguarding democratic principles.
NA Preparation
Material Facts
In examining the growing political influence of Indian diaspora communities in global perspectives, especially concerning its implications on the conduct and outcome of elections in democracies like India, a meticulous analysis of material facts is essential. This analysis considers empirical data, the technical mechanisms of political mobilization, and documented instances indicating the diaspora’s impact on homeland electoral politics.
Empirical Data and Economic Contributions
The Indian diaspora, recognized as the world's largest with approximately 17.5 million individuals residing abroad, contributes significantly to India's economy through remittances, which amounted to over $83 billion in 2019, as reported by the World Bank. This economic linkage potentially translates into political leverage, where increased financial flows to specific regions might subtly influence electoral preferences and political allegiances within India.
Digital Campaigns and Mobilization Efforts
The utilization of digital platforms for political engagement by the diaspora illustrates a sophisticated approach to influencing homeland politics. These online campaigns potentially reach millions, courtesy of India’s expanding internet accessibility. However, the engagement's complexity lies in ensuring message coherence amidst the flood of information, which occasionally features dubious narratives. The effective mobilization through digital means underscores a transition in how diaspora communities engage with and potentially sway electoral bases in India.
Direct Political Involvement and Advocacy
Highlighted incidents, such as the thwarted plot against Gurpatwant Singh Pannun and the diplomatic ripples from the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, present tangible instances of international political drama with domestic implications in India. These events frame India's international posture and internal politics within a narrative that diaspora communities have the means to alter or amplify.
Additionally, the diaspora’s lobbying against India’s Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in foreign political arenas marks a direct form of political engagement. Such activities point towards an evolving role of the diaspora from mere observers to active participants in India’s political discourse, leveraging their positions in host countries to advocate for policy shifts within India.
Geopolitical Dynamics and Electoral Influence
The geopolitical narratives surrounding the Indian diaspora, as observed in the Modi administration’s diplomatic engagements and the controversies they spawn, feed into a broader nationalistic sentiment. This sentiment, in turn, has measurable effects on voting patterns and political alignments within India, demonstrating the geopolitical layer's significant influence on electoral outcomes.
Comprehensive Analysis
The comprehensive examination of the Indian diaspora’s influence on homeland electoral politics incorporates various channels including economic impacts, digital mobilization efficacy, international incident-driven perception changes, and direct political advocacy. The intricate interplay of these factors with India’s domestic political priorities and the electorate’s reception of diaspora-led initiatives form a complex image.
While the diaspora’s economic contributions and digital engagement outline a clear framework for potential influence, the impact of direct political involvement and advocacy, as well as geopolitical tensions, complicates the assessment. These dynamics necessitate a nuanced understanding to accurately decipher the overall impact on electoral outcomes in India.
In conclusion, the Indian diaspora wields a multifaceted influence on India's political landscape. Through economic contributions, digital engagement, direct advocacy, and the broader geopolitical implications of their actions, diaspora communities have carved a role that transcends traditional boundaries of political participation. As such, their involvement represents a critical dimension in understanding the conduct and outcome of elections within contemporary Indian democracy.
Force Catalysts
Enhancing the net assessment of Force Catalysts relevant to the Indian diaspora's growing political influence demands a more granular exploration into the drivers behind their participation and its implications on the political landscape of India. This endeavor aims to not only validate the catalysts previously outlined but also intricately examine their interplay within the broader geopolitical context, thereby offering predictive insights into their evolving role in shaping election outcomes and democratic processes in India.
Historical Context and Diaspora Evolution
The Indian diaspora's engagement with homeland politics has historical roots dating back to the post-colonial era, where early waves of migration set the foundation for transnational ties. However, the acceleration of this engagement in recent decades correlates with India's economic liberalization and the information technology boom. These developments catalyzed a new wave of skilled migration, fostering a diaspora endowed with significant economic and intellectual capital. Thus, leadership within the diaspora has often emerged from professionals and entrepreneurs who have leveraged their positions to influence political narratives both within India and their host countries. Recognizing the historical evolution and socio-economic backdrop against which the diaspora's political engagement unfolds is crucial for comprehending its current and future trajectories.
Dynamic Interplay of Catalysts
The intricacies of leadership, resolve, initiative, and entrepreneurship among the diaspora demand a nuanced understanding of how these catalysts interact with the fluctuating geopolitical and technological landscapes. Leadership in diaspora communities often embodies a hybrid model, blending traditional cultural aspects with modern political activism. This hybridity enables diaspora leaders to navigate both the political arenas of their host countries and India effectively.
The resolve of the diaspora to influence homeland politics is amplified by digital channels that facilitate unprecedented levels of mobilization and engagement. Social media platforms, online forums, and digital fundraising have empowered the diaspora to participate actively in electoral campaigns, policy advocacy, and diaspora-led development initiatives. The initiative is notably evident in diaspora-driven efforts to leverage their collective bargaining power, lobbying host countries to shape foreign policy decisions and bilateral relations concerning India.
Entrepreneurship within the diaspora transcends conventional economic ventures, extending to the innovation of political campaigning and engagement strategies. Utilizing advanced technologies, diaspora entrepreneurs have introduced new paradigms in political communication, voter outreach, and diaspora engagement with homeland issues. These ventures not only showcase the diaspora’s capacity to innovate in the political domain but also underscore the significant impact of technological advancements on diaspora-led political activism.
Forward-Looking Implications and Predictive Insights
Anticipating the future impact of the Indian diaspora's political engagement necessitates consideration of ongoing global shifts. The rise of digital diplomacy, changing immigration policies, and the increasing significance of diaspora soft power in international relations are likely to influence the strategies employed by diaspora communities. Moreover, the potential for digital disinformation and the role of AI in shaping political narratives present both challenges and opportunities for diaspora political activism.
In a world where geopolitical allegiances are increasingly fluid, the Indian diaspora's role as mediators and influencers could gain new dimensions. Their ability to act as bridges between India and their host nations could redefine India's engagement on the global stage, particularly in sectors critical to national interests such as trade, defense, and technology transfer.
Expanding the Geopolitical Lens
By examining the political engagement of Indian diaspora communities in diverse geopolitical contexts, from the Gulf region to the corridors of power in Silicon Valley, one gains a holistic view of the multilayered impact of diaspora activism. Each context offers unique insights into the modalities of influence, the challenges encountered, and the successes achieved. This global perspective not only enriches our understanding of the Indian diaspora's political influence but also contributes to a comparative framework for analyzing diaspora politics globally.
In sum, delivering a net assessment that meticulously captures the scope and depth of the Indian diaspora's political influence requires an intricate examination of its historical foundations, the dynamic interplay of force catalysts, and consideration of future trends and geopolitical contexts. Such an approach not only deepens our comprehension of the diaspora's current roles but also equips policymakers and stakeholders with critical insights for strategizing India's engagement with its global diaspora in the realm of politics and beyond.
Constraints and Frictions
To rigorously assess the complex interplay of constraints and frictions pertinent to the political activism of Indian diaspora communities within a global perspective, detailed attention must be given to an array of multidimensional factors. These factors, deeply rooted in both the diaspora's host countries and the homeland, fundamentally influence the scope, nature, and effectiveness of their political engagement.
Epistemic Constraints and Information Dynamics
A pivotal challenge arises from the epistemic constraints linked to the availability, reliability, and interpretation of information. Digital platforms play a critical role in diaspora political activism by enabling widespread engagement and information dissemination. However, they also serve as double-edged swords, introducing vulnerabilities to misinformation and disinformation campaigns. A quantitative analysis on the proliferation of digital misinformation could draw from specific instances, such as the coordinated disinformation campaigns identified in the 2019 Indian general elections, where false narratives were strategically planted across social media platforms to sway the diasporic perception and engagement. These instances underscore the critical need for robust information validation mechanisms within diaspora communities to fortify their political discourse against epistemic vulnerabilities.
Legal and Regulatory Landscapes
The diaspora's political activism is further constrained by the legal and regulatory frameworks of both their host countries and the homeland. For instance, the application of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) in the United States poses significant legal implications for diaspora communities engaging in political lobbying. A detailed examination of legal challenges faced by Indian-American organizations under FARA would illuminate the nuanced legal constraints they navigate to maintain their political engagement within legal boundaries.
Technological Infrastructures and Cybersecurity
Technical frictions arising from cybersecurity vulnerabilities represent another significant constraint. The increasing reliance on digital platforms for political mobilization and discourse exposes diaspora communities to cyber-attacks aimed at disrupting their activities. An analysis of specific cybersecurity incidents targeting Indian diaspora organizations could offer valuable insights into the technical challenges faced and the strategies employed to mitigate such risks, enhancing the understanding of the cybersecurity landscape impacting diaspora political activism.
Socio-Political Contexts
The socio-political environment in both host countries and the homeland presents additional layers of complexity. The evolving political landscapes, particularly in countries with significant Indian diaspora populations, directly influence the modalities and efficacy of diaspora activism. For instance, the current political climate in the United States, characterized by heightened scrutiny of foreign influence, necessitates a nuanced understanding of how Indian diaspora political activities are perceived and impacted. Analyzing the direct consequences of such political environments on diaspora activism offers critical perspectives on the adaptive strategies required to navigate these socio-political terrains effectively.
Temporal and Historical Considerations
An in-depth exploration of historical patterns of diaspora political activism provides essential context for understanding the evolution of constraints and frictions. Investigating the historical trajectories of significant diaspora movements, such as the lobbying efforts for the nuclear deal between India and the United States, would elucidate the changing dynamics and emerging challenges over time. Such analysis not only enriches the understanding of past influences but also informs future strategic directions for diaspora political engagement.
Forward-Looking Projections and Scenarios
Considering the dynamic nature of technological advancements and global geopolitics, it is imperative to adopt a forward-looking approach that anticipates future developments. Constructing detailed scenarios that account for potential technological innovations, geopolitical shifts, and changes in legal regulations can elucidate probable future states of diaspora political activism. This approach enables the identification of emergent opportunities and challenges, guiding proactive measures to navigate the evolving landscape of diaspora political influence.
Incorporating these detailed analytical dimensions into the assessment of constraints and frictions offers a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the influences shaping the political activism of Indian diaspora communities. This analysis not only illuminates the multifaceted challenges faced but also highlights the adaptability and resilience inherent in diaspora political engagement, providing valuable insights for both diaspora communities and homeland political entities seeking to enhance their collaborative impact on the global stage.
Alliances and Laws
The influence of the Indian diaspora communities on elections in democracies like India is a multifaceted issue with implications on both domestic and international levels. Given the complex geopolitical landscape and the significant role of these communities, the involvement of the diaspora in homeland politics has several key considerations:
Impact on Bilateral Relations
The engagement of diaspora communities in the politics of their country of origin can affect bilateral relations between India and host countries, particularly when large numbers of the diaspora are involved in the political process abroad. For instance, if the diaspora actively campaigns against the current Indian government or its policies, this could lead to tensions. In the context provided, the perception that the Biden administration might leverage the Indian diaspora, intentionally or unintentionally, to exert pressure or destabilize the Modi government could strain India-US relations.
Influence on Policy and Public Perception
Indian diaspora communities, particularly those in politically and economically influential countries, have the potential to shape policy and public perception towards India. Their advocacy for or against certain policies can influence the policy direction of both their host countries and India. The diverse political preferences within the diaspora mean that their involvement is multi-directional, sometimes supporting the government and other times opposing its policies. This diverse political engagement must be factored into a net assessment as it can significantly affect election outcomes and the political landscape in India.
Media and Narrative Control
The ability of the diaspora to influence media narratives in their host countries and in India is significant. Media coverage can shape public opinion, and the diaspora's engagement with the media can either amplify or counter narratives that impact electoral outcomes in India. The perception within India that foreign actors or diaspora elements could use media to influence domestic politics adds another layer of complexity to understanding the diaspora's political influence.
Legal and Ethical Considerations
Actions taken against members of the diaspora, such as legal proceedings or arrests, can have international repercussions, affecting the image of India abroad and influencing the diaspora's engagement with homeland politics. The timing and optics of such actions, particularly in relation to elections, can lead to perceptions of political motivation which can affect election outcomes and public opinion both domestically and internationally.
Financial Contributions
Financial contributions by the diaspora to political parties and campaigns in India play a significant role. These contributions can significantly impact the financial capabilities of political parties and, by extension, their electoral success. Understanding the flow of diaspora contributions requires careful analysis as it often reflects broader political alignments and intentions.
Strategic Voting and Mobilization
The diaspora can act as a strategic voting bloc, influencing specific constituencies, especially in closely contested areas. Their ability to mobilize support, both financially and in terms of advocacy, can be a determining factor in marginal seats, thereby affecting overall electoral outcomes.
In conclusion, the involvement of Indian diaspora communities in the politics of their homeland is a complex phenomenon with significant implications for the conduct and outcomes of elections. It highlights a need for a nuanced understanding that takes into account the diversity of the diaspora, their influence on bilateral relations, media narratives, and the legal and ethical considerations of their engagement. As such, any net assessment of geopolitical strategies involving India must carefully consider the variable impact of its global diaspora.
Information
US authorities thwarted a conspiracy to assassinate a Sikh separatist on American soil and issued a warning to India's government over concerns it was involved in the plot, according to multiple people familiar with the case.
The target of the plot was Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American and Canadian citizen who is general counsel for Sikhs for Justice, a US-based group that is part of a movement pushing for an independent Sikh state called "Khalistan".
US President Joe Biden raised the matter in a discussion with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a meeting at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September, the Financial Times has learnt.
The National Security Council confirmed the Financial Times report of the plot on Wednesday and said the US had raised the issue with India, including "at the senior-most levels".
The people familiar with the case, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the intelligence that prompted the warning, did not say whether the protest to New Delhi led the plotters to abandon their plan, or whether the FBI intervened and foiled a scheme already in motion.
The US informed some allies about the plot following the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar , a Canadian Sikh separatist killed in Vancouver in June. In September, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there were "credible allegations" linking New Delhi to Nijjar's fatal shooting.
One person familiar with the situation said the initial US protest over the Pannun plot was issued after Modi made a high-profile state visit to Washington in June.
Separate from the diplomatic warning, US federal prosecutors have filed a sealed indictment against at least one alleged perpetrator of the plot in a New York district court, according to people familiar with the case.
The US Department of Justice is debating whether to unseal the indictment and make the allegations public or wait until Canada finishes its investigation into Nijjar's murder. Further complicating the case, one person charged in the indictment is believed to have left the US, according to people familiar with the proceedings.
The DoJ and FBI declined to comment. The National Security Council told the Financial Times ahead of publication of the story that the US did "not comment on ongoing law enforcement matters or private diplomatic discussions with our partners". But it added: "Upholding the safety and security of US citizens is paramount."
Following publication of the story, the NSC issued a statement saying the US was treating the issue with "utmost seriousness".
"We understand the Indian government is further investigating this issue and will have more to say about it in the coming days," added Adrienne Watson, NSC spokesperson. "We have conveyed our expectation that anyone deemed responsible should be held accountable."
Washington shared details of the Pannun case with a wider group of allies after Trudeau went public with details of the Vancouver killing, the combination of which sparked concern among allies about a possible pattern of behaviour.
India has rejected Canada's claims about New Delhi's possible involvement in Nijjar's murder as "absurd".
India's external affairs ministry said after the FT's report that during recent discussions on India-US security co-operation, "the US side shared some inputs pertaining to [the] nexus between organised criminals, gun runners, terrorists and others".
"The inputs are a cause of concern for both countries and they decided to take necessary follow-up action," the ministry said, adding that the issues were "already being examined by relevant departments".
Contacted by the FT, Pannun declined to say whether US authorities had warned him about the plot, saying he would "let the US government respond to the issue of threats to my life on American soil from the Indian operatives".
"The threat to an American citizen on American soil is a challenge to America's sovereignty, and I trust that the Biden administration is more than capable to handle any such challenge," Pannun said.
The White House said Indian officials had expressed "surprise and concern" when it raised the issue, and said that "activity of this nature was not their policy". India's response resembled language used by its foreign minister S Jaishankar, who described the Canadian allegations as "not consistent with our policy".
Pannun angered Indian officials this month when he issued a video in which he warned Sikhs not to fly on Air India because it would be "life threatening". He told the FT he was not making a violent threat against the airline.
Washington has urged India to help the Canadian investigation but has avoided being too critical of New Delhi in public over the Vancouver case. The US government views India a member of the Quad security group along with Japan and Australia as a critical part of a broader strategy to counter China.
Several people familiar with the debate inside the Biden administration said officials were aware that any public disclosure of the US plot, and Washington's protest to New Delhi, would renew questions about India's reliability as a trusted partner.
The Biden administration has faced criticism from human rights groups for its efforts to deepen relations with India.
India's ruling Bharatiya Janata party is a Hindu nationalist party, and Modi has been accused by his political opponents and human rights groups of fomenting violence against religious and ethnic minorities in India.
The Indian prime minister was feted this summer in Washington, where he delivered a speech to Congress. Ahead of his visit, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden would raise human rights with Modi but said the US-India relationship would be "one of the defining relationships of the 21st century".
The FT previously reported that Biden raised the Canadian allegations with Modi at the G20 summit in India in September. The White House declined to say whether Biden also raised the Pannun case with Modi then.
US ambassador to Canada David Cohen said in September that Ottawa received information about the Vancouver case from the intelligence-sharing network Five Eyes, which comprises the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
India has accused Canada, the UK and other countries with large Indian diaspora communities of being too tolerant of members of the Sikh separatist movement, which it frequently accuses of terrorism.
During a visit to Washington in September, Jaishankar told a Hudson Institute event that Ottawa had a "very permissive" attitude towards Sikh separatists because of Canadian politics.
The Maldives has signed a "military assistance" deal with China after ordering Indian troops deployed in the small but strategically-placed archipelago to leave, officials said on Tuesday (Mar 5).
Some 89 Indian military personnel in the country will be gone by May 10 after having been previously ordered out by pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu, who came to power last year on an anti-Indian platform.
The Maldivian defence ministry said they signed an "agreement on China's provision of military assistance" with Beijing late Monday, saying the agreement was "gratis", or without payment or charge, but giving no further details.
The defence ministry said the deal was to foster "stronger bilateral ties", in a post on social media platform X.
India is suspicious of China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean and its influence in the Maldives, a chain of 1,192 tiny coral islands stretching around 800km across the equator, as well as in neighbouring Sri Lanka.
Both South Asian island nations are strategically placed halfway along key east-west international shipping routes.
Relations between Male and New Delhi have chilled since Muizzu won elections in September.
New Delhi considers the Indian Ocean archipelago to be within its sphere of influence, but the Maldives has shifted into the orbit of China - its largest external creditor.
Muizzu, who visited Beijing in January where he signed a raft of infrastructure, energy, marine and agricultural deals, has previously denied seeking to redraw the regional balance by bringing in Chinese forces to replace Indian troops.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters Tuesday that Beijing was doing "its utmost to jointly build a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership" with the archipelago.
"Normal cooperation between China and the Maldives does not target any third party and does not undergo any interference by third parties," she added.
US authorities thwarted a conspiracy to assassinate a Sikh separatist on American soil and issued a warning to India's government over concerns it was involved in the plot, according to multiple people familiar with the case.
The target of the plot was Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American and Canadian citizen who is general counsel for Sikhs for Justice, a US-based group that is part of a movement pushing for an independent Sikh state called "Khalistan".
US President Joe Biden raised the matter in a discussion with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a meeting at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September, the Financial Times has learnt.
The National Security Council confirmed the Financial Times report of the plot on Wednesday and said the US had raised the issue with India, including "at the senior-most levels".
The people familiar with the case, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the intelligence that prompted the warning, did not say whether the protest to New Delhi led the plotters to abandon their plan, or whether the FBI intervened and foiled a scheme already in motion.
The US informed some allies about the plot following the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar , a Canadian Sikh separatist killed in Vancouver in June. In September, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there were "credible allegations" linking New Delhi to Nijjar's fatal shooting.
One person familiar with the situation said the initial US protest over the Pannun plot was issued after Modi made a high-profile state visit to Washington in June.
Separate from the diplomatic warning, US federal prosecutors have filed a sealed indictment against at least one alleged perpetrator of the plot in a New York district court, according to people familiar with the case.
The US Department of Justice is debating whether to unseal the indictment and make the allegations public or wait until Canada finishes its investigation into Nijjar's murder. Further complicating the case, one person charged in the indictment is believed to have left the US, according to people familiar with the proceedings.
The DoJ and FBI declined to comment. The National Security Council told the Financial Times ahead of publication of the story that the US did "not comment on ongoing law enforcement matters or private diplomatic discussions with our partners". But it added: "Upholding the safety and security of US citizens is paramount."
Following publication of the story, the NSC issued a statement saying the US was treating the issue with "utmost seriousness".
"We understand the Indian government is further investigating this issue and will have more to say about it in the coming days," added Adrienne Watson, NSC spokesperson. "We have conveyed our expectation that anyone deemed responsible should be held accountable."
Washington shared details of the Pannun case with a wider group of allies after Trudeau went public with details of the Vancouver killing, the combination of which sparked concern among allies about a possible pattern of behaviour.
India has rejected Canada's claims about New Delhi's possible involvement in Nijjar's murder as "absurd".
India's external affairs ministry said after the FT's report that during recent discussions on India-US security co-operation, "the US side shared some inputs pertaining to [the] nexus between organised criminals, gun runners, terrorists and others".
"The inputs are a cause of concern for both countries and they decided to take necessary follow-up action," the ministry said, adding that the issues were "already being examined by relevant departments".
Contacted by the FT, Pannun declined to say whether US authorities had warned him about the plot, saying he would "let the US government respond to the issue of threats to my life on American soil from the Indian operatives".
"The threat to an American citizen on American soil is a challenge to America's sovereignty, and I trust that the Biden administration is more than capable to handle any such challenge," Pannun said.
The White House said Indian officials had expressed "surprise and concern" when it raised the issue, and said that "activity of this nature was not their policy". India's response resembled language used by its foreign minister S Jaishankar, who described the Canadian allegations as "not consistent with our policy".
Pannun angered Indian officials this month when he issued a video in which he warned Sikhs not to fly on Air India because it would be "life threatening". He told the FT he was not making a violent threat against the airline.
Washington has urged India to help the Canadian investigation but has avoided being too critical of New Delhi in public over the Vancouver case. The US government views India a member of the Quad security group along with Japan and Australia as a critical part of a broader strategy to counter China.
Several people familiar with the debate inside the Biden administration said officials were aware that any public disclosure of the US plot, and Washington's protest to New Delhi, would renew questions about India's reliability as a trusted partner.
The Biden administration has faced criticism from human rights groups for its efforts to deepen relations with India.
India's ruling Bharatiya Janata party is a Hindu nationalist party, and Modi has been accused by his political opponents and human rights groups of fomenting violence against religious and ethnic minorities in India.
The Indian prime minister was feted this summer in Washington, where he delivered a speech to Congress. Ahead of his visit, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden would raise human rights with Modi but said the US-India relationship would be "one of the defining relationships of the 21st century".
The FT previously reported that Biden raised the Canadian allegations with Modi at the G20 summit in India in September. The White House declined to say whether Biden also raised the Pannun case with Modi then.
US ambassador to Canada David Cohen said in September that Ottawa received information about the Vancouver case from the intelligence-sharing network Five Eyes, which comprises the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
India has accused Canada, the UK and other countries with large Indian diaspora communities of being too tolerant of members of the Sikh separatist movement, which it frequently accuses of terrorism.
During a visit to Washington in September, Jaishankar told a Hudson Institute event that Ottawa had a "very permissive" attitude towards Sikh separatists because of Canadian politics.
The United Kingdom on Monday (Mar 25) accused Beijing-backed groups of targeting "democratic institutions and parliamentarians" in two cyber campaigns, unveiling sanctions and summoning China's ambassador.
The Chinese embassy in Britain hit back, calling the claim "completely unfounded" and accusing London of "malicious slander".
With Britain expected to hold a general election within months , London detailed attacks in 2021 and 2022 that targeted the Electoral Commission and UK parliamentary accounts, including those of lawmakers critical of China.
"Chinese state-affiliated actors were responsible for two malicious cyber campaigns targeting both our democratic institutions and parliamentarians," Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden told members of parliament.
He said that both campaigns, while a "real and serious threat", were ultimately thwarted.
Dowden said an unnamed "Chinese state-affiliated entity" likely "compromised" UK Electoral Commission systems, but he insisted election security was not affected.
"It will not impact how people register, vote or otherwise participate in democratic processes," he said.
Parliament's cybersecurity measures blocked a second campaign against lawmakers, many of whom are critical of Beijing, he added.
Two individuals and one company linked to the Chinese-backed group suspected of orchestrating the campaign APT31 have been hit with sanctions over the latter case.
The Chinese ambassador to London has been summoned "to account for China's conduct", Dowden said.
Conservative MP Iain Duncan Smith, one of the targeted lawmakers, said Beijing should be labelled a threat to the UK.
He was one of several UK MPs sanctioned by China in 2021 because of criticisms of human rights abuses against China's Uyghur minority and in Hong Kong.
The United Nations General Assembly on Thursday (Mar 21) unanimously adopted the first global resolution on artificial intelligence to encourage countries to safeguard human rights, protect personal data, and monitor AI for risks.
The nonbinding resolution, proposed by the United States and co-sponsored by China and 122 other nations, took three months to negotiate and also advocates for strengthening privacy policies, senior US administration officials said, briefing reporters before the resolution's approval.
"Today, all 193 members of the United Nations General Assembly have spoken in one voice, and together, chosen to govern artificial intelligence rather than let it govern us," US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said.
The resolution is the latest in a series of initiatives - few of which carry teeth - by governments around the world to shape AI's development, amid fears it could be used to disrupt democratic processes, turbocharge fraud or lead to dramatic job losses, among other harms.
"The improper or malicious design, development, deployment and use of artificial intelligence systems ... pose risks that could ... undercut the protection, promotion and enjoyment of human rights and fundamental freedoms," the measure says.
In November, the US, Britain and more than a dozen other countries unveiled the first detailed international agreement on how to keep artificial intelligence safe from rogue actors, pushing for companies to create AI systems that are "secure by design".
WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT NIJJAR'S MURDER?
Nijjar was shot dead outside the Sikh temple where he had served as president on Jun 18 in Surrey, a Vancouver suburb with a large Sikh population.
He suffered multiple gunshot wounds and died at the scene.
His killing marked the second prominent member of the Sikh community in Canada to be murdered in two years.
Ripudaman Singh Malik, a Sikh businessman who was acquitted in connection with the 1985 Air India bombing that killed more than 300 people, was shot dead on Jul 14 last year.
A lawyer and spokesperson for Sikhs For Justice, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, said Nijjar had been a target of threats due to his activism.
Pannun said he had spoken to Nijjar by phone the day before his murder and that Nijjar had told him that Canadian intelligence had warned him that his life was at risk .
HOW HAS THE ASSASSINATION IMPACTED INDIA-CANADA RELATIONS?
Relations between Canada and India soured following the Sikh leader's assassination and ensuing protests in Canada.
Canada said on Monday that there were "credible allegations" that agents linked to New Delhi were responsible for the murder of Nijjar.
Trudeau also said in an emergency statement to the House of Commons that any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen was "an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty".
He said he had raised the murder directly with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi last week, and urged the government of India to "cooperate with Canada to get to the bottom of this matter".
"Canada has declared its deep concerns to the top intelligence and security officials of the Indian government. Last week at the G20 I brought them personally and directly to Prime Minister Modi in no uncertain terms," he said.
Canada also expelled India's top intelligence agent in the country on Monday, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said, without providing details.
India on Tuesday dismissed the accusation as "absurd and motivated" and in a tit-for-tat move, said it was expelling a Canadian diplomat.
The government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also said the leader had "completely rejected" Canada's assertions in the unsolved slaying.
New Delhi also urged Canada instead to take legal action against anti-Indian elements operating from its soil.
Modi had conveyed his strong concerns to Trudeau at the G20 summit over recent demonstrations in Canada by Sikhs calling for an independent state.
The Indian government accuses Ottawa of turning a blind eye to the activities of radical Sikh nationalists who advocate the creation of an independent Sikh state to be carved out of northern India.
In a sign of the simmering crisis, Ottawa recently suspended negotiations for a free-trade agreement with India, and last week the minister of trade cancelled a trip to the country planned for October.
Trudeau on Tuesday demanded that India treat with "utmost seriousness" Canada's allegations.
"India needs to take this matter with the utmost seriousness. We are doing that, we are not looking to provoke or escalate," he said.
On Wednesday, India warned its citizens against visiting parts of Canada.
Without explicitly referring to the row, India's foreign ministry said it was concerned for the safety of its citizens in Canada because of "politically-condoned hate crimes and criminal violence".
"Threats have particularly targeted Indian diplomats and sections of the Indian community who oppose the anti-India agenda," a ministry statement said.
"Indian nationals are therefore advised to avoid travelling to regions and potential venues in Canada that have seen such incidents."
The advisory did not name specific cities or locations for Indians to avoid.
US authorities thwarted a conspiracy to assassinate a Sikh separatist on American soil and issued a warning to India's government over concerns it was involved in the plot, according to multiple people familiar with the case.
The target of the plot was Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American and Canadian citizen who is general counsel for Sikhs for Justice, a US-based group that is part of a movement pushing for an independent Sikh state called "Khalistan".
US President Joe Biden raised the matter in a discussion with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a meeting at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September, the Financial Times has learnt.
The National Security Council confirmed the Financial Times report of the plot on Wednesday and said the US had raised the issue with India, including "at the senior-most levels".
The people familiar with the case, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the intelligence that prompted the warning, did not say whether the protest to New Delhi led the plotters to abandon their plan, or whether the FBI intervened and foiled a scheme already in motion.
The US informed some allies about the plot following the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar , a Canadian Sikh separatist killed in Vancouver in June. In September, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there were "credible allegations" linking New Delhi to Nijjar's fatal shooting.
One person familiar with the situation said the initial US protest over the Pannun plot was issued after Modi made a high-profile state visit to Washington in June.
Separate from the diplomatic warning, US federal prosecutors have filed a sealed indictment against at least one alleged perpetrator of the plot in a New York district court, according to people familiar with the case.
The US Department of Justice is debating whether to unseal the indictment and make the allegations public or wait until Canada finishes its investigation into Nijjar's murder. Further complicating the case, one person charged in the indictment is believed to have left the US, according to people familiar with the proceedings.
The DoJ and FBI declined to comment. The National Security Council told the Financial Times ahead of publication of the story that the US did "not comment on ongoing law enforcement matters or private diplomatic discussions with our partners". But it added: "Upholding the safety and security of US citizens is paramount."
Following publication of the story, the NSC issued a statement saying the US was treating the issue with "utmost seriousness".
"We understand the Indian government is further investigating this issue and will have more to say about it in the coming days," added Adrienne Watson, NSC spokesperson. "We have conveyed our expectation that anyone deemed responsible should be held accountable."
Washington shared details of the Pannun case with a wider group of allies after Trudeau went public with details of the Vancouver killing, the combination of which sparked concern among allies about a possible pattern of behaviour.
India has rejected Canada's claims about New Delhi's possible involvement in Nijjar's murder as "absurd".
India's external affairs ministry said after the FT's report that during recent discussions on India-US security co-operation, "the US side shared some inputs pertaining to [the] nexus between organised criminals, gun runners, terrorists and others".
"The inputs are a cause of concern for both countries and they decided to take necessary follow-up action," the ministry said, adding that the issues were "already being examined by relevant departments".
Contacted by the FT, Pannun declined to say whether US authorities had warned him about the plot, saying he would "let the US government respond to the issue of threats to my life on American soil from the Indian operatives".
"The threat to an American citizen on American soil is a challenge to America's sovereignty, and I trust that the Biden administration is more than capable to handle any such challenge," Pannun said.
The White House said Indian officials had expressed "surprise and concern" when it raised the issue, and said that "activity of this nature was not their policy". India's response resembled language used by its foreign minister S Jaishankar, who described the Canadian allegations as "not consistent with our policy".
Pannun angered Indian officials this month when he issued a video in which he warned Sikhs not to fly on Air India because it would be "life threatening". He told the FT he was not making a violent threat against the airline.
Washington has urged India to help the Canadian investigation but has avoided being too critical of New Delhi in public over the Vancouver case. The US government views India a member of the Quad security group along with Japan and Australia as a critical part of a broader strategy to counter China.
Several people familiar with the debate inside the Biden administration said officials were aware that any public disclosure of the US plot, and Washington's protest to New Delhi, would renew questions about India's reliability as a trusted partner.
The Biden administration has faced criticism from human rights groups for its efforts to deepen relations with India.
India's ruling Bharatiya Janata party is a Hindu nationalist party, and Modi has been accused by his political opponents and human rights groups of fomenting violence against religious and ethnic minorities in India.
The Indian prime minister was feted this summer in Washington, where he delivered a speech to Congress. Ahead of his visit, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden would raise human rights with Modi but said the US-India relationship would be "one of the defining relationships of the 21st century".
The FT previously reported that Biden raised the Canadian allegations with Modi at the G20 summit in India in September. The White House declined to say whether Biden also raised the Pannun case with Modi then.
US ambassador to Canada David Cohen said in September that Ottawa received information about the Vancouver case from the intelligence-sharing network Five Eyes, which comprises the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.
India has accused Canada, the UK and other countries with large Indian diaspora communities of being too tolerant of members of the Sikh separatist movement, which it frequently accuses of terrorism.
During a visit to Washington in September, Jaishankar told a Hudson Institute event that Ottawa had a "very permissive" attitude towards Sikh separatists because of Canadian politics.
Jessica Byrd, who leads the Movement for Black Lives' Electoral Justice Project and The Frontline, a multiracial coalition effort to galvanise voters, said she plans to engage in the rigorous organising work needed to push Harris and Biden toward more progressive policies.
"I deeply believe in the power of black women's leadership, even when all of our politics don't align," Byrd said. "I want us to be committed to the idea that representation is exciting and it's worthy of celebration and also that we have millions of black women who deserve a fair shot."
Harris is the second black woman elected to the Senate. Her colleague, Cory Booker, who is also black, said her very presence makes the institution "more accessible to more people" and suggested she would accomplish the same with the vice presidency.
Harris was born in 1964 to two parents active in the civil rights movement. Shyamala Gopalan, from India, and Donald Harris, from Jamaica, met at the University of California, Berkeley, then a hotbed of 1960s activism. They divorced when Harris and her sister were girls, and Harris was raised by her late mother, whom she considers the most important influence in her life.
Kamala is Sanskrit for "lotus flower", and Harris gave nods to her Indian heritage throughout the campaign, including with a callout to her "chitthis", a Tamil word for a maternal aunt, in her first speech as Biden's running mate. When Georgia Senator David Perdue mocked her name in an October rally, the hashtag #MyNameIs took off on Twitter, with South Asians sharing the meanings behind their names.
The mocking of her name by Republicans, including Trump, was just one of the attacks Harris faced. Trump and his allies sought to brand her as radical and a socialist despite her more centrist record, an effort aimed at making people uncomfortable about the prospect of a black woman in leadership. She was the target of online disinformation laced with racism and sexism about her qualifications to serve as president.
Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal of Washington said Harris' power comes not just from her life experience but also from the people she already represents. California is the nation's most populous and one of its most diverse states; nearly 40 per cent of people are Latino and 15 per cent are Asian. In Congress, Harris and Jayapal have teamed up on bills to ensure legal representation for Muslims targeted by Trump's 2017 travel ban and to extend rights to domestic workers.
"That's the kind of policy that also happens when you have voices like ours at the table," said Jayapal, who in 2016 was the first South Asian woman elected to the US House. Harris won election to the Senate that same year.
The relationship between India and the United States has never been stronger, according to analysts, but that may be tested by a potential power shift in the US Capitol.
India, like many key partners of the US, is watching the upcoming midterm elections closely, as relations between both sides are at a crucial juncture.
The two nations now collaborate on trade, regional security, and response to the COVID-19 pandemic, bilaterally and through forums such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
Such cooperation means that the relationship has largely received bipartisan support in the US Capitol.
Over the past five years, India has moved closer than before to the US.
President Joe Biden's administration has pledged financial and technological support to help Delhi's transition to renewable energy by 2030.
Recently, it also promised to fast-track visa applications for Indian workers.
Visiting Scholar in the Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Dr Deep Pal, noted that the White House has been looking at a presidential commission's report which talks about speeding up the process of getting green cards.
He added that India and the US have set aggressive deadlines in their climate change collaboration.
But the Republicans have openly called for tighter controls on immigration and criticised the Democrats' climate action plan raising concerns in Delhi. These plans will "possibly not gain as much traction", Dr Pal said.
India's stock markets are expected to power on if Narendra Modi wins a third electoral victory this year, even as investors grow fearful that the index gains are built on stretched valuations.
The country's enviable economic performance, which has underpinned strong corporate earnings, and political stability under the prime minister are fuelling bullish sentiment among investors , with the IMF forecasting India will grow at 6.5 per cent this year and next.
The BSE Sensex index hit a record high this month, having risen every year since 2016, while the total value of its equity market has now eclipsed Hong Kong . Some analysts see no reason why years of market gains should not continue.
"India has the best long-term growth prospects in the region, the corporate sector has demonstrated an ability to translate strong economic growth into earnings and stock market returns," said Sunil Koul, Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.
But after years of gains, some analysts are growing cautious about the lofty valuations. Among large-caps, a flood of new money is pushing up the share prices of companies with very low free-floats. Meanwhile, regulators are clamping down on trading in smaller stocks, with some drawing parallels with the US's 2021 meme stock craze.
For now few see clouds on the horizon. Modi, India's most popular leader in decades, is widely expected to cement a third term in power following national elections being held between April and June.
Many investors have welcomed the prospect of political stability they believe another Modi term brings. Political opposition is in disarray. The Indian National Congress, the biggest bloc contesting Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata party, complained it has been unable to campaign after its bank accounts were frozen this month while another prominent leader was arrested .
Modi's government is ushering in manufacturing investment as companies seek to diversify supply chains outside of China, while India's physical and digital infrastructure has also improved. New Delhi has also benefited from the continued import of cheap Russian crude without sanctions thanks to its courtship of western governments.
The MSCI India index has advanced 141 per cent in the years since Modi was elected prime minister in 2014, dwarfing the 9.4 per cent climb of the MSCI Emerging Market index in the same period. Most of the gains have come in the years after the coronavirus pandemic hit financial markets. Goldman expects a 15 per cent compound annual growth rate for Indian earnings through 2025 that "should drive markets higher".
Analysts said there was likely to be further inflow of money into India's equity market from domestic pension funds and overseas investors.
Aditya Suresh, head of India equity research at Macquarie Capital, pointed out overall membership of Indian pension funds had climbed nearly 10-fold in the past five years.
"While a third term for the current government is already priced into expectations, after a formal result we expect to see incremental foreign institutional investor inflows," he said.
But for all the excitement over India's long-term economic performance, investors are growing nervous about whether the stock market rally is sustainable.
The MSCI India is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple for 2024 of 23 times, compared with 12.5 times for the broader emerging market index.
Earlier this month investment bank Jefferies held its annual Asia forum in Hong Kong. Following conversations with foreign portfolio investors, their analysts wrote that many fund managers "continue to grapple" with a market at "high multiples".
Kamil Dimmich, a partner at London-based North of South Capital, said his emerging markets fund has not held Indian stocks for about two years following the "insane jump" after the coronavirus pandemic.
India "is not as liquid as one might think for such a big country...free-floats tend to be quite limited because you have these promoters", he said, referring to India's controlling founders and families.
"So when you get big, big foreign and domestic retail inflows it can drive the market up and of course that has resulted in this very high premium level," he added.
India's market regulator also stepped in to calm heated activity in smaller stocks, after both the S&P BSE small-cap and mid-cap indices rose 60 per cent in the past year.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India in late February requested Indian mutual funds find ways to slow the flow of funds into smaller stocks and protect investors from a wave of redemptions, sparking a sell-off and prompting concerns over a market downturn.
"The kind of best comparison would be the meme stocks and GameStop...it's just retail-buying frenzies," said Dimmich, who added that any deeper disappointments in India's rosy economic picture or an adverse election result for Modi could result in a wider and protracted market underperformance.
"There's no real valuation arguments to push the market," he said. "It has to be driven by growth, growth, lots of growth and that's always a little bit scary when your base case is the blue sky case."
The clampdown has begun to cool enthusiasm at the smaller end of the market. The S&P BSE small-cap index is down 4.9 per cent month to date.
Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities in Mumbai, said investors' focus will now "start shifting into large-cap companies". The benchmark Nifty 50, which covers India's largest stocks, may hit 25,000 or a 13 per cent upside from current levels in the next 12 to 18 months, he said, even though it had risen 235 per cent over the past decade.
Even if India is hit by short-term shocks, few other markets offer the same multi-decade structural growth stories, according to Siddharth Mehta, founder and chief investment officer at Bay Capital, a London-based fund focused on Indian equities.
"The pace of change, the pace of flow may ebb and change, but the direction of travel is pretty obvious," he said. "As a result of that there is a premium to come to India and I think the premium is justified in my opinion, I don't see that narrowing anytime soon."
ELECTIONS IN A DIGITAL AGE
We have known since 2016 at least that elections in the digital age are unusually vulnerable to manipulation. While officials responsible for election integrity have been working diligently since then, they are fighting the last war.
Former US President Donald Trump's 2016 victory and other votes around that period were influenced by carefully seeded narratives, bot farms, and so on. In response, a small army of fact-checkers emerged around the world and mechanisms to keep "fake news" out of the formal press multiplied.
The experience of India - which, given that it has the most voters, is also the world's largest lab for election malpractice - demonstrates the limits of this work. The more scrupulous fact-checkers are, the easier they can be overwhelmed with a flood of fake news. They're also, unfortunately, human - and therefore too easy to discredit, however unfairly.
Some new ideas have begun to emerge. Even Elon Musk's critics appear fond of the "community notes" he has added to X, formerly known as Twitter, which tag viral tweets with crowd-sourced fact-checks.
Because these are crowd-sourced, they respond organically to the amount of fake news in circulation and, because they are not associated with any individual group of fact-checkers, they are harder to dismiss as biased.
Yet technology has moved even faster. AI-based disinformation has already begun to proliferate - and gets harder to spot as fake with every passing month. Oddly, stopping such messages from going viral is harder when they don't immediately come across as offensive or particularly pointed.
In Indonesia, for example, a TikTok video that appeared to show defense minister and presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto speaking Arabic was viewed millions of times. It was an AI-generated deepfake meant to bolster his diplomatic (and possibly his Islamic) credentials.
Nor can we assume that an increasingly digital-savvy electorate will be able to navigate this new information landscape without help. If there's one thing we have learned from the information war that has accompanied Israel's physical battle against Hamas in Gaza, it's that people who grew up with the internet are not those best-equipped to identify obvious propaganda. In fact, they seem to be least able to tell fact from fiction.
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