Redefining Warfare: Information Systems and Future Military Doctrines
15th March, 2024
How will technological advancements in information systems redefine military doctrines and combat strategies in the next decade?
First Layer
The evolving landscape of military doctrines and combat strategies over the next decade will be profoundly influenced by the rapid advancement and integration of information systems on the battlefield. This transformation is precipitated by the amalgamation of artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity enhancements, sophisticated satellite technologies, and innovative communication systems. These technological strides promise to redefine the principles of engagement, command, control, and intelligence gathering, thereby altering the very fabric of military operations and strategic planning across the globe.
Comprehensive Analysis of Technological Advancements
Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Military Operations
The application of AI in military systems, exemplified by the Singapore Armed Forces' development of an advanced command and control system, represents a pivotal shift towards real-time data synthesis and decision-support mechanisms. AI-driven enhancements, leveraging algorithms optimized for various operational facets—from logistical support to tactical execution—herald a new era in battlefield dynamics. Ethical considerations surrounding AI's military integration spotlight the necessity for robust governance frameworks, ensuring responsible deployment while mitigating unintended consequences.
Cybersecurity and the Digital Battleground
The escalation of cyberspace as a primary domain for modern warfare, as evidenced by the Singapore-US cooperation agreement, underscores the imperative for resilient cyber defenses. Protecting military networks via sophisticated cryptographic solutions and intrusion detection systems, capable of pinpointing anomalies indicative of cyber threats, constitutes a critical aspect of modern military doctrine.
Space Capabilities and Strategic Implications
The establishment of the US Space Force and similar initiatives worldwide accentuates the burgeoning significance of space in military strategy. The technologies employed to defend or neutralize satellite-based assets, encompassing both kinetic and non-kinetic anti-satellite weaponry, mark an innovative frontier where space capabilities are seamlessly integrated with terrestrial operational effectiveness.
Navigational Resilience against GNSS Disruptions
The prevalence of GNSS disruptions, particularly through advanced electronic warfare tactics like spoofing and jamming, necessitates doctrinal adaptation towards fortified navigation security. This encompasses the development and deployment of anti-spoofing technologies and the diversification of navigational aids, ensuring uninterrupted operational integrity.
Strategic Implications and Doctrinal Evolution
The identified technological advancements compel a doctrinal reevaluation, specifically in the realms of autonomous operations, cyber warfare, and intelligence synthesis. The integration of AI and cyber capabilities is set to revolutionize decision-making processes, enabling unparalleled situational awareness and predictive accuracy. Concurrently, the strategic dimension afforded by enhanced space capabilities will compel a reconfiguration of terrestrial and extraterrestrial defense postures.
A critical component of this doctrinal evolution involves the anticipation and counteraction of potential adversarial responses. The development of countermeasures against sophisticated cyber-attacks, the safeguarding of space assets, and the ethical deployment of AI-based systems necessitate a multi-faceted strategic approach, balancing technological prowess with tactical prudence.
Multidisciplinary Integration and Global Context
The effective realignment of military doctrines and combat strategies demands a holistic integration of insights from cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, satellite technology, and communication systems. This multidisciplinary approach must also consider geopolitical, socio-economic, and ethical implications, ensuring that the advancement in military capabilities aligns with international norms and laws.
The global variation in technological adoption rates, influenced by economic disparities and strategic priorities, further emphasizes the need for a comparative assessment of military readiness. Nations at the forefront of technological integration will possess a marked strategic advantage, necessitating a nuanced understanding of the global military balance and power projection capabilities.
Risks, Opportunities, and Actionable Insights
The integration of advanced information systems presents both potential risks—such as technological dependency and vulnerabilities—and opportunities for tactical advantages and strategic superiority. Military organizations and policymakers must proactively engage in skills development, technological investment, and infrastructure enhancement to capitalize on these advancements.
A predictive timeline for technological milestones and their adoption into military practice, considering the current research, development, and testing cycles, is vital for strategic planning. Early indicators of deviations from the projected path will enable agile adjustments to emerging threats and opportunities.
Conclusively, the adaptation of military doctrine and technology, crystallized through the integration of information systems, predicates a transformative decade ahead. By embracing comprehensive analyses, fostering multidisciplinary integration, and formulating strategic recommendations, military forces worldwide can navigate the complexities of future warfare, ensuring long-term security and operational supremacy.
Second Layer
Refined Projection: Integration of Technological Advancements in Military Strategies
Bridging Technological Advancements and Military Adoption Dynamics
The imminent transformation of military doctrines and combat strategies is precipitated not only by the technological advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, space capabilities, and global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) but also critically by the human, operational, and organizational dimensions that dictate technology adoption in military contexts. Analyzing the intersection of rapid technological advancement with the inherent resistances within military structures offers a multifaceted view of the future of warfare.
Enhanced Analysis of Information System Technologies
AI and Autonomous Operations
AI's impact on military operations transcends algorithmic enhancements, encompassing machine learning models for predictive analytics in operational planning, and autonomous platforms for surveillance and active engagement. For instance, the use of reinforcement learning algorithms enables unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs) to adapt to complex combat environments, providing high-precision strike capabilities without direct human intervention. The ongoing development within the realm of the United States Department of Defense, exemplified by Project Maven, demonstrates AI's utility in processing immense volumes of surveillance data, identifying potential threats with significantly improved speed and accuracy.
Cybersecurity and the Battle for Digital Supremacy
The digital landscape of warfare emphasizes not only defensive mechanisms against cyber intrusions but also offensive capabilities designed to disrupt adversaries' command and control communications. Advanced cryptographic solutions, such as Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), present an emerging field capable of enhancing secure military communications resistant to current and future decryption methodologies. This evolution highlights the escalating cyber arms race requiring constant innovation to maintain strategic advantages.
Space Capabilities: The Ultimate High Ground
The utilization of space-based assets extends beyond satellite communication, engaging in electronic warfare measures to disable or take control of adversaries' satellites, thereby impacting their operational effectiveness. The development of satellite constellations with rapid-redeployment capabilities ensures uninterrupted communication and reconnaissance services, exemplified by the U.S. Space Development Agency’s plans for a proliferated Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite network.
GNSS Disruptions: Technological and Operational Mitigations
The issue of GNSS spoofing/jamming has catalyzed the development of multi-layered countermeasures ranging from signal authentication protocols to the integration of inertial navigation systems (INS) as redundancy measures. Real-time anomaly detection systems, leveraging AI, offer a dynamic response to emerging threats by identifying and mitigating spoofing attempts, ensuring the integrity of navigational data crucial for mission success.
Organizational Culture and Technology Integration Challenges
The integration of cutting-edge technologies within military doctrines encompasses challenges rooted in organizational inertia and training paradigms. Strategies addressing the digital transformation of armed forces must consider the reconfiguration of traditional hierarchy structures, fostering a culture of innovation, and investing in continuous education programs to mitigate resistance. Leadership's role in navigating through these organizational dynamics, as observed in Singapore's AI development initiatives, underlines the necessity of visionary strategies harmonizing technological ambition with human dimensions.
Geopolitical Complexities and International Dynamics
The global technological landscape is indelibly influenced by geopolitical complexities and competing strategic interests that shape military technology adoption. International regulations, such as the Outer Space Treaty and the Tallinn Manual on cyber warfare, delineate parameters for military actions in space and cyberspace. Furthermore, emerging technologies must navigate an intricate web of export controls, international sanctions, and diplomatic relations, as evidenced by global responses to the proliferation of drone technologies and cyber capabilities.
Conclusions: Navigating the Future of Warfare
The in-depth analysis emphasizing both technological advancements and the encompassing dynamics of adoption within military strategies elucidates a future where warfare is transformed by information systems. The nuanced examination of AI, cybersecurity, and space capabilities, against a backdrop of organizational and geopolitical realities, reveals a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges. Military organizations must navigate this terrain through adaptive leadership, agile policy frameworks, and collaborative international efforts to harness the potential of technological innovations while ensuring strategic security and operational superiority in the decades to come.
NA Preparation
Material Facts
In the endeavor to meticulously analyze how technological advancements in information systems might redefine military doctrines and combat strategies in the forthcoming decade, it is imperative to delve into specific empirical data, technical details, and strategic doctrines that underpin the ongoing and anticipated shifts within the domain of military operations. This in-depth exploration not only harnesses the confluence of AI and cybersecurity in the operational theater but also extends to navigating the complexities introduced by space militarization, GNSS disruptions, and the geopolitically charged arena of global infrastructure initiatives. The integration and implications of missile defense technologies further compound the strategic recalibrations necessary in this evolving landscape.
AI-Driven Enhancements in Military Systems
The adoption of AI and data analytics by the Singapore Armed Forces, exemplified through the development of an advanced command and control system, underscores a strategic pivot towards integrating real-time data synthesis and decision-support mechanisms. This AI-driven paradigm, supported by algorithms optimized for varied military operations ranging from logistics to combat strategy formulation, heralds a profound transformation in battlefield command and control dynamics. The precise algorithms—potentially encompassing neural networks for pattern recognition in satellite imagery or Bayesian algorithms for probabilistic forecasting in logistical planning—epitomize the leap in tactical capabilities enabled by AI.
Ethical Considerations in AI Military Integration:
The ethical implications of employing AI in military applications pose substantial deliberation points, necessitating comprehensive governance frameworks that address the moral quandaries of automated decision-making and its potential for unintended consequences. The Singaporean defense establishment's endeavor to forge an AI Partnership for Defense illustrates a concerted effort to navigate these ethical complexities, promoting the responsible, safe, reliable, and robust development and utilization of AI technologies within the military sphere.
Cybersecurity Threats and Defensive Strategies
With the digital battleground becoming increasingly contested, cyber resilience forms a cornerstone of modern military doctrine. The Singapore-US cyberspace cooperation agreement signifies the strategic acknowledgment of and response to this evolving threat. The technical intricacies of protecting military networks and operations, potentially involving advanced cryptographic solutions and intrusion detection systems utilizing anomaly detection algorithms, underscore the need for a nuanced understanding and response to cyber warfare tactics.
The Strategic Significance of Space Capabilities
The advent of the US Space Force and similar initiatives globally accentuates the strategic value ascribed to space as a domain of military operation. Technological efforts to safeguard or disable satellite-based assets, including the kinetic and non-kinetic means of engaging anti-satellite weapons, delineate a new frontier in military strategy where space capabilities are inextricably linked to terrestrial operational effectiveness.
GNSS Disruptions and Navigation Security
The increasing prevalence of GNSS disruptions in conflict zones – attributed to sophisticated electronic warfare tactics such as spoofing and jamming – necessitates a doctrinal adaptation towards enhancing navigation resilience. Strategies to mitigate these vulnerabilities might include the diversification of navigational aids and the development of anti-spoofing technologies, such as the deployment of cryptographically secure signals.
Global Infrastructure Initiatives and Geopolitical Implications
China’s Belt and Road Initiative exemplifies the intersection of infrastructure development and geopolitical strategy, where the construction of strategic assets like the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway line ostensibly for economic purposes also harbors potential military utilities. The critical examination of such initiatives unveils the multifaceted implications for global military strategies, reflecting a nuanced balance between economic engagements and strategic military posturing.
Information Warfare and Digital Platforms
The scrutiny regarding TikTok and the broader apprehensions about digital platforms as conduits for espionage or information warfare encapsulate the shifting paradigms of conflict where information superiority emerges as a pivotal strategic objective. The doctrinal evolution to counteract or harness these digital platforms signifies an operational transition towards recognizing and operationalizing information as a critical domain of warfare.
Missile Defense Technologies and Strategic Balances
The advancements in missile defense technology, particularly exemplified through the developments in U.S. and Israeli anti-ballistic missile systems, render a strategic recalibration in offensive and defensive postures. The technical evolution from rudimentary interception capabilities to sophisticated, networked systems capable of high-efficacy engagement against ballistic threats underscores a significant pivot in doctrinal thinking towards missile defense as a viable and critical component of national and international security strategies.
The systemic integration of these technological advancements and strategic considerations delineates the contours of a future where military doctrines and combat strategies are fundamentally redefined. The conjunction of AI, cybersecurity, space capabilities, and missile defense technologies, underscored by the pervasive influence of global infrastructure initiatives and the imperatives of information warfare, heralds a paradigm shift towards a technologically integrated and strategically adaptive military doctrine capable of navigating the complexities of future conflicts.
Force Catalysts
To distill and enhance the prognosis of how technological advancements in information systems will redefine military doctrines and combat strategies in the next decade, it's critical to scrutinize and expand upon the Force Catalysts—leadership, resolve, initiative, and entrepreneurship—within the context of accelerating technological transformation. This analysis delves deeper, balancing optimism with the inherent challenges of adoption, exploring the nuanced interplay between these catalysts, and providing a forward-thinking view on the implications for future military engagements.
Leadership and Revolutionary Technological Adoption
Historical benchmarks like the development and integration of ballistic missile defense systems by the U.S. defense over decades underscore a paradigm where leadership is not merely about command and control but envisioning and steering the military enterprise through the shoals of technological upheaval. The leadership's role evolves to accentuate strategic foresight, alignment of organizational dynamics towards innovation adoption, and managing the transition period with adept change management principles. This entails understanding the technological landscape, potential future developments, and embedding a culture of continuous learning and adaptation to leverage information systems for a strategic edge effectively.
Resolve in the Face of Rapid Technological Change
The essence of resolve in this era of technological ferment is characterized by the determination to overcome barriers to the integration of new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), cyber operations, and network-centric warfare strategies. This resolve is manifested through commitment across the military organization to sustain investment in next-generation technologies despite setbacks and to build resilience against evolving cyber threats. The dynamic nature of resolve in this context requires a recalibration of readjustment mechanisms to ensure that the strategy remains robust amidst rapid technological advancements and changing geopolitical pressures.
Initiative in Seizing Technological Superiority
The imperative of initiative is highlighted by the anticipatory adoption and innovative employment of emerging technologies to redefine engagement norms and achieve strategic advantages. It involves not only the exploration of autonomous systems and space-based assets but also the integration of digital twins and virtual war-gaming into operational planning and decision-making processes. The focus shifts towards leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning algorithms to enhance situational awareness and strategic decision-making, underscoring a move towards an information-centric warfare doctrine.
Entrepreneurial Drive towards Technological Edge
Entrepreneurial spirit in the military context entails the courage and creativity to pioneer disruptive technological solutions that challenge traditional combat models. This spirit drives the exploration of quantum computing for secure communications, the operationalization of hypersonic weapons for strategic deterrence, and the adoption of blockchain for secure logistics and supply chain management in contested environments. The confluence of entrepreneurial zeal with technological experimentation enables the forging of novel doctrines and combat strategies that can dramatically alter the traditional battlefield paradynamics.
Future Milieu: Anticipating Technological Impacts on Military Doctrine and Strategy
Incorporating these augmented Force Catalysts into an analytical framework generates a comprehensive perspective on how technological advancements are set to reshape military doctrines and combat strategies. Emphasizing the importance of adaptability, the ability to foresee and prepare for technological discontinuities, and maintaining strategic agility will be paramount. This transformation is not without its challenges, including the digital divide between nations, ethical concerns around autonomous systems, and the potential for rapid obsolescence of traditional capabilities. Moreover, the role of international cooperation and norms in regulating the deployment of emerging technologies in military contexts will emerge as critical facets to consider.
To conclude, as the military domain stands on the cusp of an unprecedented technological revolution, the Force Catalysts of leadership, resolve, initiative, and entrepreneurship hold the keys to navigating this transition effectively. Through a nuanced understanding of these catalysts and a strategic approach to leveraging technological advancements, military doctrines and combat strategies are poised for a profound transformation. This will not only redefine the paradigms of conflict but also ensure that military forces remain adept and resilient in the face of the challenges and opportunities that the next decade holds.
Constraints and Frictions
Addressing the multifaceted challenges and uncertainties in the domain of military doctrine and technology, particularly with the rapid integration of information systems on the battlefield, necessitates a deep dive into both Constraints and Frictions.
Epistemic Constraints
Within the sphere of Epistemic Constraints, complexities arise given the vast and still evolving nature of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its operational validation. The transition from traditional warfare doctrines to those integrating autonomous systems and AI hinges significantly on the reliability, validation, and adaptability of these technologies. As observed in setbacks within autonomous system trials, such as DARPA's XAI program, challenges extend beyond isolated errors - they underscore a potential systemic risk in operational contexts. These risks are not confined to misinterpretations but extend into how data variability and the integration of AI across diverse technological landscapes could result in operational inconsistencies and strategic vulnerabilities. This signals the need for an exhaustive framework addressing the validation of AI in variable combat scenarios, emphasizing robustness and fail-safe mechanisms within military strategies.
Technical Frictions
Focusing on Technical Frictions, the operational scaling of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and their integration into comprehensive military tactics epitomize potential fault lines in modern warfare. Beyond individual incidents, the systemic implications of UAV failures reveal inherent vulnerabilities in reliance upon tech-centric warfare. The strategic ramifications cover not only asset loss but also collateral damage and the erosion of tactical unpredictability. Therefore, exploring systemic solutions aimed at enhancing UAV reliability, including redundant systems, advanced diagnostics, and real-time adaptive control algorithms, becomes crucial for sustaining their strategic advantage amidst expansive deployment.
Regulatory and Legal Constraints
Regulatory and Legal Constraints significantly influence the evolution of military doctrines, especially concerning cyberwarfare tactics. The fluid legal terrain governing state-sponsored cyber operations creates a nuanced obstacle, intricately linking strategy to international norms and laws. This intricate dance necessitates doctrines that are agile, capable of leveraging cyber capabilities within legal confines while preemptively considering international responses and treaty obligations. Analyzing past adaptations, such as changes post-Tallinn Manual, offers insight into strategic pivots responsive to legal constraints, underscoring the necessity for operational doctrines to remain within the bounds of evolving international cyber laws.
Economic Frictions
Economic Frictions starkly delineate capacities between large and smaller states, impacting strategic and tactical flexibility. For nations with constrained defense budgets, like Latvia vis-à-vis the U.S., the emphasis shifts towards asymmetric warfare and innovative deployment of limited resources to maximize strategic impact. This underscores the need to elucidate methodologies employed by smaller states, such as leveraging cyber capabilities or investing in high-impact, low-cost technologies like drones, which can induce substantial reevaluations in the military doctrines of more resource-abundant adversaries.
Resource Constraints vs. Asymmetric Warfare
Exploring the intersection of Resource Constraints and Asymmetric Warfare, in-depth case studies reveal how states like Vietnam or insurgent groups have historically compelled doctrinal shifts in technologically superior adversaries. This analysis should extend into modern contexts, examining how contemporary asymmetric tactics, especially cyber and drone warfare, continue to force doctrine evolution amongst major powers, highlighting the dynamic interplay between resource constraints and innovative tactical development.
Evolution of Anti-Ballistic Capabilities
The advent and maturation of Anti-Ballistic Capabilities manifest strategic shifts, as seen through the deployment of the Aegis Combat System. A strategic depth analysis should encompass the cascade of countermeasures by potential adversaries and the impact on global strategic stability. By integrating an iterative review of Aegis and similar systems' adaptations against emerging threats, a clearer picture of the perpetual arms race that defines missile defense and offense balance is formed, offering lessons on the ongoing need for innovation and flexibility in military doctrines.
Cyber Warfare
Revisiting the watershed event in Ukraine in 2015, the analysis demands a linkage to subsequent doctrinal shifts, emphasizing the strategic recalibration towards hardened, resilient, and redundant communication and control systems. Discussing adaptations across military alliances in response underscores the ripple effect of significant cyber incidents on global military strategizing, highlighting a concerted move towards integrated cyber defense frameworks.
AI in Military Strategy
Lastly, comprehensively contrasting the PLA's approach to AI in military strategy against global counterparts illuminates a spectrum of strategic orientations and preparedness levels. This dual-faceted analysis should encompass both offensive capabilities and defensive countermeasures, framing AI's pivotal role in redefining geopolitical power balances. Surveying these developments alongside scenario planning for AI's potential trajectories offers a multi-dimensional view of future warfare landscapes.
This iteration aims to address gaps identified, broadening the scope and depth of analysis on how technological advancements, particularly in information systems, will inevitably drive the evolution of military doctrines and combat strategies over the coming decade. Integration of continuous iteration and feedback mechanisms, informed by both theoretical frameworks and empirical data, shall foster an adaptable analysis model, crucial for navigating the complexities of future military technological integration.
Alliances and Laws
The next decade will witness a profound transformation in military doctrines and combat strategies, primarily driven by technological advancements in information systems. This shift will be characterized by a greater reliance on digital technology, not only as a means of communication but also as a comprehensive control mechanism. The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into military operations will further revolutionize these doctrines, automating control measures and enhancing decision-making processes on the battlefield.
The incorporation of AI and advanced information systems into military strategy aligns with observed trends in global defense mechanisms. For example, the U.S. defense's evolution in ballistic missile defense capability, developed over 15 years, marks a significant milestone in leveraging technology for strategic defense. While China's apparent adoption of missile systems similar to those of the U.S. suggests a parallel effort in leveraging technology, the assessment of their dedication of time, money, and engineering to the latest systems remains a topic of observation.
The effectiveness of digital technology and AI in military contexts is not hypothetical but is grounded in recent conflict observations. The performance of U.S. and Israeli anti-ballistic missile technology in the Middle East, notably in the Red Sea and Israel, attests to the advancements in defense technologies over the past decade. The significant improvement in the missile systems on destroyers, transitioning from marginal effectiveness to proven capability, underscores the potential of technology-driven military doctrines.
The integration of AI into military information systems will not merely enhance existing capabilities but is set to redefine military doctrines fundamentally. AI's capacity to process vast amounts of data in real-time, predict adversary moves, and recommend strategic decisions will elevate the tactical and operational competencies of armed forces. The transformation will likely encompass several key areas:
Autonomous Systems
Drones and unmanned vehicles, equipped with AI, will perform reconnaissance, surveillance, and even strike missions with minimal human intervention. This will expand the military's reach and precision while minimizing risks to personnel.
Cyber Warfare
The role of cyber operations in military strategy will intensify. AI-powered cyber defense and attack capabilities will become crucial elements of national security. This includes safeguarding critical infrastructure and disrupting adversaries' command and control systems.
Decision Support Systems
AI will provide commanders and decision-makers with actionable intelligence and predictive analytics, enabling more informed and timely decisions. This will be crucial in dynamic battlefields where situations evolve rapidly.
Logistics and Support
AI systems will optimize logistics and supply chains, ensuring efficient resource allocation and deployment. This will enhance the military's operational readiness and sustain prolonged engagements.
Human-AI Teamwork
The future battlefield will see enhanced collaboration between human soldiers and AI systems. This synergy will extend human capabilities, from exoskeletons for enhanced strength and endurance to AI assistants for tactical decision-making.
To summarize, technological advancements in information systems, particularly the integration of AI, will redefine military doctrines and combat strategies in unprecedented ways. The transition will require not only technological innovation but also a paradigm shift in how military operations are conceived and executed. Adapting to this new era of warfare will be paramount for national security and defense strategies worldwide.
Information
GLOBAL THREAT ENVIRONMENT
Geopolitics is "in a very strange place" at the moment, Ms Natasha Pheiffer, BAE Systems' regional managing director for Asia, told CNA's Asia Now on Tuesday.
"With the current threat situation, all countries have to ensure that they boost their defences and security and that they therefore set up for any eventualities," she said.
"The threat environment keeps changing and therefore military forces need to keep up with that, and companies like ourselves have to ensure that we keep up with the technologies."
Mr Jeff Shockey, RTX's senior vice president of global government relations, said his company's mission is "kind of defending democracy around the world".
"What you're seeing as a result of the war in Ukraine, everything that's going on in the Middle East and the potential build-up in the Taiwan Strait countries are becoming more focused on what they need to do to defend themselves and be prepared if they need to go further than that," he told CNA's Asia First on Wednesday.
He said his firm is seeing global demand for its products in the United States and its allies around the world.
The US military, which has long invested in AI, faces "significant international competition" from both China and Russia, which are pursuing militarised AI technologies, the report added.
The Singapore Armed Forces is also making advancements in AI. In September, it unveiled a new command and control system that uses AI and data analytics to recommend weapons and help commanders make faster and more effective decisions.
"But can we tolerate mistakes, ultra-low statistically, but that result in loss of innocent lives or precipitate consequences from which there can be no retreat? What safeguards are needed, to be built in AI systems for robustness and accountability?" Dr Ng asked on Tuesday.
"These and other challenges, I think, are worth your attention."
This year's summit will examine the impact of recent disruptions to government organisations and industries, and discuss how they can prepare for future disruptions, said the Defence Science and Technology Agency, which hosted the event.
Dr Ng said countries can pursue multilateral arrangements to address the risk of irresponsibly using AI in military applications.
This includes the AI Partnership for Defense, which has brought together like-minded countries to promote and advance the responsible development and use of AI in the military.
Last year, Singapore published the second edition of its Model AI Governance Framework, incorporating feedback and experiences of leading international forums such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Expert Group on AI and the European Commission's High-Level Expert Group.
"This year, we established the preliminary AI guiding principles of 'responsible, safe, reliable and robust' for our defence establishment, and will continue to participate actively in multilateral cooperation on AI technologies, governance and policy," Dr Ng said.
DOMINANCE IN OUTER SPACE
Another area to discuss, Dr Ng said, is outer space, where there is contest for dominance if not supremacy.
Dr Lonneke Peperkamp, an assistant professor at Radboud University who studies war theory and space ethics, wrote in a 2020 journal article that the militarisation of space "seems to be really taking off" in recent years.
For example, various states now have anti-satellite weapons. Testing them results in a significant amount of space debris that orbit the earth, she said.
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After years of debate, the US also launched its Space Force in December 2019, while France and several other countries have similar plans.
"Clearly, states are becoming increasingly proactive when it comes to the (further) militarisation of outer space," she wrote.
Dr Ng said assets and capabilities in space are now critical to many facets of normal function of life on earth, which anti-satellite systems can cripple.
"As the number of private and state actors in space grow, space can become a militarised zone and strategic miscalculations and inadvertent escalations can ensue," he added.
CYBERATTACKS EXPECTED TO RISE
Dr Ng also touched on the digital domain, which he described as a "contested battle space".
"Attacks in the digital battlefield pose a growing threat that can easily spill over, explode and wreak unintended havoc on the rest of society," he said.
"These include disruption of hospital care, transport and power grids, as well as financial institutions, just to name a few."
Examples of such attacks include those on Iran's nuclear centrifuges, Ukraine's power grid and SolarWinds, a company that produces software used by multiple US government departments.
Dr Ng said the scale, scope and frequency of cyberattacks are expected to rise, with non-state actors increasingly conducting hits using tools like malware, ransomware, misinformation, disinformation and influence campaigns against private corporations and governments.
In August, Singapore's Ministry of Defence and the US Department of Defense signed an agreement on cyberspace cooperation , aimed at institutionalising cyber cooperation between both defence establishments.
The agreement is expected to improve cooperation in information sharing, ops-to-ops and technical exchanges, as well as collaboration in regional capacity-building efforts.
Dr Ng said the defence technology community should address, in this summit and elsewhere, how and what rules should govern the digital domain.
"The need for frameworks to guide state and commercial behaviour in cyber, artificial intelligence, big data and other emerging domains has become more urgent," he stated.
"Just as in the kinetic world, the digital domain must move from an unfettered, no-rules based, 'who dares, wins' architecture to one that prevents high-stakes catastrophes and disruption to civilian life."
Content:155MM HISTORY
The French first developed the 155mm round to respond to World War I's extensive trench warfare, and early versions included gas shells, Keri Pleasant, historian for the Army's Joint Munitions Command, said in a statement to The Associated Press.
As World War I continued, the 155mm gun became the most common artillery piece used by the Allies, Pleasant said, and the US Army later adopted it as its standard field heavy artillery piece.
The US military fielded its own version, the M1, for World War II. After the war, the new NATO alliance adopted the 155mm as its artillery standard.
By the Korean War, the round had been modified again, with a cluster munition variant. "The round contained 88 submunitions, which were dispersed over a wide area to destroy vehicles, equipment, and personnel," Pleasant said.
ITS USE IN UKRAINE
Howitzer fires can strike targets up to 24 to 32km away, depending on what type of round and firing system is used, which makes them highly valued by ground forces to take out enemy targets from a protected distance.
"Adversaries don't have much warning of it coming. And it's harder to hide from incoming rounds that are arcing in from the top, which makes it highly lethal," Brobst said.
In Ukraine, 155mm rounds are being fired at a rate of 6,000 to 8,000 a day, said Ukrainian parliamentary member Oleksandra Ustinova, who serves on Ukraine's wartime oversight committee. They are eclipsed by the estimated 40,000 Russian variant howitzer rounds fired at them, she told reporters at a recent Washington event sponsored by the German Marshall Fund.
The Pentagon previously had said how many rounds it was providing in each of the security assistance packages being sent about every two weeks to keep weapons and ammunition flowing into Ukraine. But it stopped specifying the number of 155mm rounds shipped in each package in February, citing operational security.
However, in its overall count of assistance provided to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022, the Pentagon says it has sent more than 160 155mm howitzers, more than 1.5 million 155mm rounds, more than 6,500 precision-guided 155mm rounds and more than 14,000 155mm Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems - essentially a 155mmm shell packed with four mines that scatter on the ground and can take out a Russian tank if it drives over them.
Other countries have also provided howitzers, but Kyiv has continually asked for more. As of last year Ukrainian officials were requesting as many as 1,000 howitzer systems to push Russian forces back.
SPRING OFFENSIVE
As Ukraine prepares for an intense counteroffensive this spring, it will likely need to fire 7,000 to 9,000 155mm shells a day, said Yehor Cherniev, a member of Ukraine's parliament who spoke to reporters at the German Marshall Fund event.
In recent months, the Biden administration has been using presidential drawdown authority to send ammunition directly from US military stockpiles to Ukraine, instead of having to wait and buy rounds from defense firms, so they can get there in time for the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The US has also been training Ukrainian troops in Germany on how to better use the 155mm rounds in combined arms tactics - coordinating strikes with targeting information provided by forward-based troops and other armored systems to maximise damage and reduce the number of rounds needed to take out a target.
PARIS: False GPS signals that deceive on-board plane systems and complicate the work of airline pilots are surging near conflict zones, industry employees and officials told AFP.
A ground collision alert sounds in the cockpit, for instance, even though the plane is flying at high altitude - a phenomenon affecting several regions and apparently of military origin.
This includes the vicinity of Ukraine following the Russian invasion two years ago, the eastern Mediterranean and the air corridor running above Iraq, according to pilots and officials interviewed by AFP.
Disruptions which were previously limited to jamming preventing access to signals from geolocation satellites are now also taking a more dangerous form making it difficult to counter spoofing.
This sees a plane receive false coordinates, times and altitudes.
By comparing this data to the geographical maps in its memory banks, its systems can conclude there is imminent danger ahead, Thierry Oriol, a Boeing 777 pilot and member of the SNPL, the main French pilots' union, told AFP.
"There were some untimely alarms ordering people to pull back as far as possible on the stick and apply full power to avoid an obstacle, while the plane was in cruise ... and in any case no mountain reaches so high," explained Oriol.
He also mentioned an incident "departing from Beirut where the plane thought it was at the level of the Alps, at 10,000 feet" or about 3km above sea level.
RISK MANAGEMENT
The problem, explained a manager at a European airline speaking on condition of anonymity, is that this adulterated information enters the navigation system and can cause false alerts hours afterwards as the flight nears its destination.
"At first, crews quickly see that it is a false alarm. But as it is an alarm warning of immediate danger, we ask the crews to still carry out the emergency manoeuvre, to make a return and an analysis.
"If the problem occurs a second time and the analysis has not revealed any danger, then the only way is to turn off this alarm, knowing other systems remain active to detect possible risk," the European airline manager added.
The commonly used GPS actually only covers the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) managed by the American army.
Two others exist - the European Galileo and Russia's GLONASS.
On board airliners, GNSS are the main tools which pilots can rely on in order to determine their position, but they are not the only ones.
Without needing to return to the sextants of bygone days, these devices are equipped with inertial orientation devices capturing movement in order to deduce an object's trajectory.
But their precision deteriorates throughout the flight.
"SHARP RISE"
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has been warning that GNSS signal disruptions have intensified, affecting relatively remote regions beyond the conflict zone such as Finland and the Mediterranean.
In certain cases, this can lead to a modified trajectory or even a changed destination as it was impossible to carry out a landing in secure conditions, the EASA says.
The commission governing health and safety conditions for Air France pilots last month posted a warning of what it termed a "grave and imminent danger" of GPS spoofing, estimating the phenomenon was affecting as many as 3.7 flights in 1,000, according to an informed source.
In late January the EASA made it a priority to act against such disruptions by unveiling a partnership with the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the world's main airline association with more than 300 carriers, to counter spoofing and jamming.
"GNSS systems offer tremendous advantages to aviation in increasing the safety of operations in a busy shared airspace," said EASA acting executive director Luc Tytgat.
"But we have seen a sharp rise in attacks on these systems, which poses a safety risk."
Tytgat added that "in the medium term, we will need to adapt the certification requirements of the navigation and landing systems.
For the longer term, we need to ensure we are involved in the design of future satellite navigation systems."
For IATA director general Willie Walsh, "we need coordinated collection and sharing of GNSS safety data; universal procedural GNSS incident guidance from aircraft manufacturers; a commitment from States to retain traditional navigation systems as backup in cases where GNSS are spoofed or jammed".
Those systems include beacons or transmitters on the ground emitting radio signals that help planes to triangulate their position.
"Airlines will be critical partners. And whatever actions are taken, they must be the focal point of the solution as they are the front line facing the risk," said Walsh.
"The current situations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea are controllable and preventable," Yue said, adding that the increased volatility in those regions "will not shake" Beijing's established military policy.
The PLA has set 2027 - the year of its centenary - to achieve its modernisation goals, which would pave the way for it to become a "world-class" military power by 2049.
Fu Qianshao, a former PLA equipment expert, said China needed to increase military expenditure "appropriately ... to improve equipment and training levels".
"(The growth) is not because of the tensions near our country, but to make adjustments year by year according to our own plan," Fu said.
"The cost of high-tech equipment is rising and the increase in military spending is normal to adapt to the advancements in military equipment."
He also said the military's share of China's GDP was below 1.5 per cent, while that of the US and its allies was "much higher".
Nato countries have committed to spending at least 2 per cent of their GDP on defence each year. The US, the world's biggest military spender, will spend about US$886 billion on its defence budget this year.
For the first time in an annual government work report, Li said Beijing would ramp up its war readiness by improving its reserve forces, the part of the military responsible for combat readiness support and defensive operations.
Meanwhile, the National Development and Reform Commission's national planning document, which is separate from the ministry's budget report, pledged to improve the military's ability to mobilise. It also said it would expand defence industry capacity and coordination for military-related infrastructure.
It was a clear signal of Beijing's drive to allocate more resources from across the country in the event of war and reflected lessons from the Ukraine war, according to Fu.
"In case of future wartime emergencies, training must be conducted regularly to ensure they can win the fight when being called up," Fu said.
Drones have been widely used in the Ukraine war, Fu said, but he noted that someone had to operate them. "We should follow future war patterns and integrate drones into regular military training," he added.
Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the Taiwanese naval academy in Kaohsiung, said the budget had not increased "significantly" given the need for huge investments to update PLA aircraft and add new warships, against the backdrop of its territorial disputes with countries like the Philippines.
Beijing's military spending "is out of a need to maintain mid- to long-term national security, including in the South China Sea", Lu said.
In a signal of loyalty, amid the high-level purges, the premier slipped in a salute in his annual report to Xi's military leadership.
"We will ... thoroughly implement the system of ultimate responsibility resting with the chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC)," Li said, in reference to Xi's tightening grip on the military.
In October, Beijing abruptly removed Li Shangfu as defence minister without explanation after just seven months on the job. Just ahead of this year's "two sessions", Li was also removed from the CMC. Nine generals - including top commanders from the PLA Rocket Force - were ousted from the legislature in December.
This article was first published on SCMP .
In Ethiopia, China funded and built the US$4.5 billion Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway line, while in Djibouti, China poured money into its maritime sector, including the country's ports and free-trade zones, and built its first overseas military base near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
After starting in 2013 to boost global trade and commerce by improving infrastructure and connectivity with Asia, Africa and Latin America, the Belt and Road Initiative has seen China spend more than US$1 trillion across the last decade.
As of the end of June this year, China had signed more than 200 documents with 152 countries and 32 international organisations as part of the initiative. In the past 10 years, more than 3,000 cooperation projects have been developed and thousands of local jobs have been created, according to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
But recently, an increasing number of critics, especially officials in Washington and some other Western countries, have accused China of driving up the debt for a number of nations to unsustainable levels. The critics accuse Beijing of engaging in "debt trap diplomacy" leaving countries saddled with loans they cannot afford.
Funding for belt and road projects has also been thrown into doubt as China's economy is still facing headwinds. Beijing unveiled a package of policies this summer to stem further downward risks after economic growth rose only 0.8 per cent sequentially in the second quarter. There have been signs that the economy has stabilised, but its long-term reliance has become a global concern.
But China has denied the "debt trap" allegations. Instead, it has pointed the finger at multilateral financial institutions and commercial creditors which account for more than 80 per cent of the sovereign debt of developing countries.
"They are the biggest source of debt burden on developing countries," China's foreign ministry said early this year.
As a response to China's Belt and Road Initiative, the US and other G7 members last year launched the US$600 billion Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) to "develop a values-driven, high-impact and transparent infrastructure" in low- and middle-income countries.
Austin Strange, assistant professor in international relations at the University of Hong Kong, said China's global infrastructure financing drive is slowing down from a feverish pace over the past decade.
"It certainly appears that large infrastructure loans from Chinese policy banks have peaked in terms of their global volume, and that the Chinese government has increasingly highlighted the merits of smaller-scale projects," Strange said.
But developing countries remain very important for China's strategic interests, both political and economic, and less infrastructure lending does not mean strategic contraction, Strange said.
Mandira Bagwandeen, senior researcher at the University of Cape Town's Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, said given China's current financial woes , it is not in a position to be lending huge sums of money for infrastructure projects across the world.
In 2016, China advanced US$28.5 billion to African countries, the highest amount ever, with most going to Angola. Since then, Chinese lending to Africa has slowed to a low of US$994.5 million last year, according to the Chinese Loans to Africa Database at Boston University.
But this does not mean that China will stop financing infrastructure projects abroad. "We are just likely to see a reduction in the number of projects," Bagwandeen said, especially the financing of mega infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars that has come to typify belt and road infrastructure investments.
Observers say the Belt and Road Initiative is here to stay at least as long as Xi is in power, since it is his signature foreign policy project and it has been elevated to constitutional status.
Tim Zajontz, research fellow at the Centre for International and Comparative Politics at South Africa's Stellenbosch University, said Beijing will continue to try to align the initiative with changing economic realities as well as with geopolitical developments.
"(Belt and road) investments and loans have become more selective to avoid both debt fallouts and political backlashes," said Zajontz, who is also a research associate in the Second Cold War Observatory, a global research collective that investigates the impact of great power rivalry. "We can expect less large-scale infrastructure projects and more Chinese investments in low-tech manufacturing and processing ventures across Africa."
The Belt and Road Initiative will also venture into non-economic spheres of cooperation to bolster Chinese influence in the cultural, educational and digital spheres across Africa, he said.
"We are also likely to see more cooperation in the security realm between China and African countries," Zajontz said.
According to Kanyi Lui, an international project finance lawyer and head of Pinsent Masons' China offices, the belt and road plan is a partnership based on mutual interests, and Chinese investments and financing are provided in response to needs identified by the host government and local conditions.
As a result, Lui said hotspots for belt and road activity tend to shift around the world.
He said if some countries or regions become more difficult or show less demand for investment, the focus will naturally shift to other countries or regions such as the Middle East which is currently seeing a boom.
"We have already seen at least two similar shifts involving Africa and Latin America over the last decade and the demand for economic development in the Global South remains very strong."
Lui said there was a strong focus on basic infrastructure development such as power and transport during the first decade of the initiative because economic development cannot happen in the absence of basic infrastructure, which has historically been one of the main obstacles for many developing countries. But countries in different stages of development have different needs and challenges.
Since Xi announced the idea of "small is beautiful" during the third Belt and Road Initiative Symposium in November 2021, the phrase has become popular in official rhetoric.
SINGAPORE: Popular Chinese video-sharing app TikTok has become a political target amid growing fears among governments that China could use it for spying or propaganda, said observers.
As the app grows in popularity, and geopolitical rivalry between China and the West remains, worries over privacy and security have been raised.
In the past week alone, several top policymaking institutions and governments have banned the social media app from their devices .
The bans underscore mounting concerns that the Chinese government could use TikTok, owned by Chinese firm ByteDance, to harvest users' data to advance its political interests and meddle in other countries' internal affairs.
PRIVACY, SECURITY CONCERNS OVER TIKTOK'S POPULARITY
There are concerns over what information is being collected, and whether that is being passed to the Chinese servers, said Dr Kevin Curran, professor of cybersecurity at Ulster University, on the widening pushback against the app.
This data could potentially include IP addresses, locations, messages sent within the app, and keystrokes captured from the in-app browser, he suggested.
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